Britain’s hopes for a long, hot summer are edging closer to reality with unusually warm weather possible into July.
Government long-range forecasts point to weeks of balmy sunshine and a greater-than-normal chance of ‘early summer heatwaves’.
Global weather events including tropical thunderstorms over the Indian Ocean and a general warming climate may deliver a long-awaited barbecue summer.
The Met Office’s three-month outlook predicts an almost double the normal chance of warm weather and little chance of a late chill.
High pressure will stay at the controls this weekend with sunny warmth forecast into next week
NETWEATHER
It states: “There is an increased chance of higher-than-normal pressure to the north of the UK with lower-than-normal pressure to the south.
“This suggests systems tracking south of the UK allowing high pressure to extend across the country at times.
“Later in the period, an increased chance of warm conditions implies a greater-than-normal chance of heatwaves in early summer.”
High pressure over the past week has driven the glorious summer burst which pushed temperatures mid-week into the 20Cs.
The ‘anticyclonic’ pattern typically steers dry, hot weather, particularly if boosted by a southerly ‘Azores High’.
High pressure will stay at the controls this weekend with sunny warmth forecast into next week.
Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin said “High pressure is still dominant and still sitting out in the North Sea or across southern parts of Scandinavia.
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The Met Office’s three-month outlook predicts an almost double the normal chance of warm weather
PA
“We have still got a dip in the jet stream, but it is further west which has allowed the high pressure to sit closer to the UK, and that will continue on Monday and Tuesday.
“Under that high pressure, we are looking at not much cloud and those weather patterns are likely to continue well into next week.
“Western areas are likely to see the highest temperatures, and we could, after a dip at the weekend, see those temperatures rising in western areas.”
The early taste of summer has seen April showers retreat in favour of rainless skies which could hold into mid-month.
Warm, dry winds prompted fire-service warnings this week for tinder-box conditions ideal for wildfires.
Dry weather will continue next week under the gaze of high pressure, although how warm it gets will rest on where the high lands.
Deakin said: “I think we will start to see temperatures tick up again as we go through the middle part of next week.
High pressure this weekend will bring further warmth
MET OFFICE
Met Office’s Alex Deakin describes how high and low pressure will be driven by the jet stream
MET OFFICE
“Beyond that, there are three possible pressure patterns which are all similar in that they are all dominated by anticyclones which is the same as high pressure, but the position of the high is key to the feel of the weather.”
If high pressure moves westwards, it will feel cooler from the north, he said, while a southerly anchor will bring warmth to the east.
Britain’s weather through the start of summer, according to the Met Office’s three-month outlook, will depend partly on global climate patterns.
Tropical thunderstorms moving across the Indian Ocean – the Julian–Madden Oscillation – and a weakening El-Nino during April could bring chiller winds.
However, Britons hoping to dig out the suncream and barbecues after the dreary winter could be in luck.
Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services and social commentator, said: “There is a possibility of seeing very warm weather return this month, and some very high April temperatures.”
