Spring will arrive with a ‘flavour’ of the stormy Atlantic as Britain’s weather is shaped by climate patterns in the tropical Pacific.
As the UK thaws from a chilly and frosty end to winter governed by stubborn Arctic winds, a U-turn is afoot.
The next fortnight will be dominated by westerly winds, bringing milder temperatures but outbreaks of wind and rain.
While no major storms are in the forecast, Britons are in for a changeable, showery, run-in to spring.
Met Office’s Aidan McGivern describes the Atlantic pattern
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Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explained: “Very changeable weather is expected, and that is the signal at least for the rest of February.
“When you look at the top-three most likely weather patterns for the end of the week, they are all variations on the same theme with low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the southwest, and a westerly flavour.
“With a westerly dominated airstream across the UK for the middle of the week, temperature anomalies compared with average suggest a degree or two above average for the time of year.”
Atlantic-driven weather may come under the influence of ocean-temperature swings near South America.
Meteorologists have confirmed wind changes off the coast of Peru have triggered the start of a La-Nina ocean cooling.
The La Nina event follows a powerful year-long El Nino – warming of the Peruvian coast – which climaxed at the end of 2024.
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Britain will be bashed by wind and rain
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Strong El Nino events, driven by a change in direction of the easterly Trade Winds in the tropics, can often pendulum-swing into La Nina.
This was logged at the start of this year and is now thought to present a threat to weather patterns in Europe.
El Nino and La Nina largely affect the tropics but can exert a knock-on in the UK bringing westerly Atlantic-dominated weather.
Severe Weather Europe meteorologist Andrej Flis said: “The latest long-range forecasts for Spring 2025 show a likely impact of La Niña on the seasonal weather over Europe.
“La Nina tends to bring warmer and drier springs over parts of central and western Europe, but more precipitation is often found over the southwestern, western and northern parts of Europe and over the Mediterranean Sea.”
While the main theme of winter’s end will be mild, Britons may yet find themselves reaching for winter coats.
Milder temperatures are on the way
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Clear skies through this week and yo-yoing winds could yet bring a last flavour of the Arctic, experts warn.
McGivern said: “I suspect the winds won’t always be exactly westerly, sometimes they will tend to be more north-westerly bringing slightly colder, showery weather with some brighter spells, and perhaps some clear spells by night so a touch of frost will be possible.
“And at other times they will be more south-westerly bringing spells of rain from the west and above-average temperatures.
“I suspect that at times we will see some slightly colder days if the wind is from the northwest.”
Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services and social commentator, said: “We have got one foot in one season and the other in another, so it is looking mixed for the next week or so.
“It will be mild at times with the risk of unsettled spells, and then colder, but generally under the influence of the Atlantic.”
