Nasa has updated its assessment of asteroid 2024 YR4, revealing an increased chance of lunar impact. The space agency now calculates a 3.8 per cent probability that the asteroid will hit the Moon on December 22, 2032.
This represents a significant increase from the 1.7 per cent chance reported in late February 2025. The revised figures are based on data from the James Webb Space Telescope and ground-based observatories.
The asteroid, approximately the size of a 10-storey building, continues to be closely monitored.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, when initial observations indicated a potential Earth impact in 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, when initial observations indicated a potential Earth impact in 2032
NASA JPL/CNEOS
The probability of Earth collision initially increased from 1.2 per cent to 2.3 per cent, then to 2.6 per cent, before peaking at 3.1 per cent on February 18, 2025.
However, by the end of February, the risk of Earth impact had fallen to practically zero per cent.
Nasa then redirected its focus to assess the possibility of the asteroid striking the Moon instead.
The James Webb Space Telescope has provided crucial new data about the asteroid's dimensions.
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Previous estimates suggested 2024 YR4 measured between 131-295 feet (40-90 metres), however Webb's observations have refined this to a more precise 174-220 feet (53-67 metres), confirming it is roughly the size of a 10-storey building.
Planetary defence experts at Nasa's Center for Near Earth Object Studies continue to analyse the asteroid's trajectory.
Despite the increased risk, Nasa emphasises there is a 96.2 per cent chance the asteroid will miss the Moon entirely.
Scientists note that with potentially hazardous asteroids, the probability of impact often rises before eventually falling.
Scientists note that with potentially hazardous asteroids, the probability of impact often rises before eventually falling
GETTY
Even in the unlikely event of a lunar impact, Nasa has confirmed it would not alter the Moon's orbit.
The space agency continues to track 2024 YR4 as it follows its orbital path around the Sun.
The asteroid will eventually return to approach Earth in 2032.
Observation capabilities will soon be limited as the asteroid moves beyond the range of ground-based telescopes.
The James Webb Space Telescope, however, maintains visual contact with 2024 YR4. Webb is scheduled to conduct additional observations in late April or early May 2025.
These upcoming observations are expected to help scientists refine their calculations regarding the asteroid's lunar impact probability.
The data collected will be crucial for determining the object's precise trajectory as it continues its journey around the Sun.
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