'City-killer' asteroid could smash into MOON as Nasa warns probability of impact set to rise further

Dr Maggie Lieu says the asteroid approaching earth could 'wipe out an entire city'

GB NEWS
Jack Walters

By Jack Walters


Published: 28/02/2025

- 08:04

Updated: 28/02/2025

- 08:05

The Big Ben-sized asteroid is given 1-in-55 odds to hit the Moon

Nasa has predicted that a Big Ben-sized asteroid could hit the Moon and has given odds for the destructive collision.

The space agency had previously feared the chance of a collision with Earth could reach 20 per cent by April.


Scientists now believe that the rock will sail past our planet with 167,000 miles to spare.

The odds of the asteroid hitting Earth now stand at just 1-in-37,000, dramatically lower than initial estimates.

Artwork of a small meteoroid impacting the surface of the Moon

Artwork of a small meteoroid impacting the surface of the Moon

GETTY

However, the Moon faces a greater threat, with impact probability rising to 1-in-55.

Experts expect the Moon's collision probability will continue increasing in the coming weeks.

A Nasa spokesman said: "There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon."

Dr Vishnu Reddy, International Asteroid Warning Network manager, added: "The most likely outcome is that also the Moon IP (impact probability) will peak at some point and then start to drop quickly."

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If the asteroid collided with the Moon, Earth would be largely unaffected.

David Rankin, operations engineer for the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, told the New Scientist: "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat."

He added that the collision would likely be "very visible" from Earth.

Astronomers first noticed the asteroid hurtling towards Earth in December, immediately placing it at the top of the risk list.

The YR4 asteroid was graded as level three on the Torino scale, meaning it merited attention from astronomers with a significant chance of causing localised destruction.

\u200bThe Asteroid is set to whizz past the Earth (file pic)

The Asteroid is set to whizz past the Earth (file pic)

Getty

Nasa has repeatedly revised its estimates about the asteroid's trajectory.

Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at MIT who invented the Torino scale, explained the changing odds.

"When we first discover an asteroid, we see only a tiny piece of its orbital path," he said.

"It is not unusual for the probability numbers to bounce around a bit, simply because the amount of data in the first few weeks and months is usually quite limited."

Scientists estimate the asteroid is between 130 and 300 feet wide.

If it struck Earth, it would deliver a force equivalent to eight million tonnes of TNT.

AsteroidNasa has announced an increased risk of Earth impact for a newly discovered asteroid, with chances now standing at 3.1 percent (Stock Image)GETTY

This would create a devastating 1.2 mile-wide crater in the Earth's crust.

The potential impact zone had included densely populated cities like Mumbai, Lagos and Bogotá.

Nasa said the asteroid scare proved an "invaluable opportunity" to test Earth's planetary defence procedures.

Scientists had considered various methods to divert the asteroid, including nukes, solar lasers and rockets.

The asteroid will pass Earth again in 2028, with final observations planned ahead of its 2032 return.