‘Who knows?!’ Tory leadership race all to play for as Chagos debacle ‘exposes problem’ for dark horse after conference boost

ConservativeHome’s latest survey handed Cleverly a 12-point boost, taking the moderate Tory to 25 per cent.

The surge ensured Jenrick’s once cemented second-place position was lost after a six-point drop left the Newark MP on 19 per cent.

Ex-Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, who suffered a couple of gaffes in Birmingham, saw her grassroots support drop from 36 per cent to 32 per cent as she retained her grip on the top spot.

Meanwhile, Tugendhat’s support appears to have stabilised in a distant fourth place on 12 per cent.

Despite Cleverly’s boost, critics have been shining the spotlight on his role in kick-starting negotiations for the handover of the Chagos Islands.

“Chagos exposed the worst of what James has and built into the doubts that MPs already had,” a One Nation source told GB News. “There’s one thing being a nice guy, there’s another being a leader and a Prime Minister.

“He’s great to go for a pint with but he doesn’t have the ability to pushback against those around him.”

Cleverly announced talks had been opened for the British Overseas Territory in November 2022.

He said: “The UK and Mauritius have decided to begin negotiations on the exercise of sovereignty over the British Indian Ocean Territory/Chagos Archipelago.”

Cleverly’s successor Lord David Cameron blocked further negotiations after replacing the Braintree MP in the Foreign Office.

The Chagos Islands have been identified as a key strategic location in the Indian Ocean as China continues to exert its influence over Mauritius.

Cleverly weighed in on the row by accusing Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer of being “weak, weak, weak” after the Government announced it would hand over the archipelago alongside a “financial support package” in order to address “wrongs of the past”.

The decision will mean Britain cedes sovereignty over the Chagos Islands but will retain the Anglo-American military base Diego Garcia on a 99-year lease.

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Responding to the announcement, Tugendhat took a veiled swipe at Cleverly.

He said: “This deal not only threatens our security but also undermines our allies, opening the possibility of China gaining a military foothold in the Indian Ocean.

“Initiated during Liz Truss’ premiership, these negotiations should never have started, as the International Court of Justice had no jurisdiction to challenge the UK’s sovereignty and its advisory opinion is non-binding under international law.

“It compromises both our national security and the stability of the region. Lord Cameron rightly intervened and stopped these negotiations - but Labour’s failure of leadership and strategic vision has left our Indian Ocean allies vulnerable.”

A Tugendhat campaign source added: “Labour’s decision to push forward the deal negotiated by James Cleverly to give up the Chagos Islands has raised questions about the Government’s commitment to the Falkland Islands.”

However, a source close to Cleverly rejected the criticism, instead telling GB News: “There is no point pretending this is anything other than Labour’s deal. It’s a sign of Keir Starmer and David Lammy’s awful negotiating.

“In Government, Labour has lost fights with the unions and now lost a strategically important negotiation with the Mauritian Government. They don’t know what they’re doing.”

GB News understands that ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss agreed to initiate negotiations and the UK was not close to signing an agreement during Cleverly’s 15-months in the Foreign Office.

Cleverly's allies believe there is an ulterior motive to the Shadow Home Secretary entering the firing line over the Chagos Islands.

Despite ending up level-pegging on 21 MPs in the second ballot last month, Cleverly’s conference speech delivered a major boost for the Shadow Home Secretary.

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Speaking on the main stage at the ICC, Cleverly said: “We need more ‘yes we can’, both from our party and from this country.”

Channelling ex-US President Ronald Reagan, the Shadow Home Secretary concluded that the Tories should “look to the future and say with one voice that it’s morning again in this great country of ours”.

Responding to his final speech, a source close to Cleverly told GB News: “I think it’s fair to say we won the conference. That doesn’t mean the leadership but just look at the betting odds.”

Ex-Chancellor George Osborne also appeared to believe Cleverly emerged as the victor from the Tory Party Conference.

He told GB News: “I think there was a clear winner, and by the way I’m not signed up to any of these candidates, but I thought James Cleverly did the best speech and had the best audience reaction.

“That’s interesting because anyone observing the contest would say he came into the conference in third or fourth place.

“Whether that translates into votes from MPs, which is the critical next stage, who knows?”

A former No10 insider added: “Jenrick definitely walked in as the front-runner but Cleverly walked away having turned most heads.

“Despite the leadership, it felt like the party was finally taking the fight to Labour instead of fighting amongst itself.”

GB News also spoke to several members at the ICC about who was their favourite candidate after the four speeches.

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One said: “James Cleverly hands down. What charisma, what leadership. He’s got to be the future.”

Another claimed: “I was Tom or Kemi but I’m definitely for Cleverly now … He was clear, he was statesmanlike and he said all the things that I wanted to hear.”

However, another member said Jenrick came out on top, adding: “He overall came across as the best candidate, I thought.”

Badenoch also received praise from Tory members who spoke to GB News on Wednesday.

Supporters of Tugendhat claimed the ex-Security Minister delivered a speech which spoke to the wider electorate.

A One Nation source told GB News: "Tom had a good conference. It was gaffe-free and he brought the energy.

“Tom's soap-box rally got more attendance than the other rallies and MPs have recognised that his speech spoke to the wider electorate. Other candidates were just speaking to members in the hall."

Taking aim at Cleverly, a Tugendhat campaign insider added: “It’s the same speech we’ve heard time and time again. It’s not anything new from what we were told when we lost the election.”

Despite not attracting eyeballs to the same extent as Cleverly, Jenrick and Badenoch go into this week as the frontrunners with MPs.

Jenrick leads the pack after receiving the support of 33 MPs in the second ballot, while Badenoch hoovered up 28 votes.

However, several leading Tories do not believe the conference will alter the course of the leadership race all too much.

A former No10 aide said: “I’m not sold on anyone. It’s all a bit s**t and the idea that any of them can immediately restore trust just doesn’t make sense to me.”

An ex-Cabinet Minister also told GB News: “It was an unusual conference but it’s become increasingly interesting. It’s normally a showcase event but members have got a lot more power this time. They’ve got a bloody big call to make.”

Another top Tory added: “I don’t think it moved the dial. Kemi’s speech was better than her conference overall. James had a good presentation and Rob will be happy that things have stood still.”

And Reform UK leader Nigel Farage voiced his indifference at the challenge posed by any of the four of the remaining leadership contenders.

He said: “James Cleverly? I thought the content of what he said was absolute nonsense from my perspective but I thought he delivered it really very, very well … When it comes to Jenrick, the great Brexiteer who voted Remain, I mean basically he’s trying to be Nigel Farage … of course in terms of policy I agree with a lot of what he said but I thought he was a bit of a charisma-free zone.”

Farage, who wreaked havoc for the Tory Party on July 4, also accused Badenoch’s speech of being “heavily scripted” and claimed the ex-Business Secretary only told members “what they wanted to hear”.

Badenoch received a surprise endorsement over the weekend from Florida Governor and one-time Republican White House hopeful Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis, who was trounced by Donald Trump in the Grand Old Party’s primary race earlier this year, joined ex-Australian premier Tony Abbott in backing Badenoch.

He said: “Greetings from across the pond. I’m pleased to endorse Kemi Badenoch for Conservative Party leader.

“She and I worked on a great trade agreement between Florida and the United Kingdom. She has a commitment to conservative principles, she’s strong, she’s courageous, and she will be an inspiration for conservatives not just in the United Kingdom, but all across the world.”

Responding to the endorsement, Badenoch said: “It builds on my work as Trade Secretary with UK allies across the world.

“They know the challenges we face are not unique and it’s great to show I have the relationships and support outside the UK as well as inside it, if elected to lead. Our party needs renewal and that includes rebuilding our overseas networks.”