Terrifying map for Starmer projects Britain swinging right as Tories and Reform seize over 100 seats
Zia Yusuf rips into Keir Starmer and backs Reform UK to succeed
GB News
Labour would face a bloodbath across Britain if an election was held tomorrow, a sophisticated polling model has shown.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent Scottish, Welsh, London and GB wide polling, has projected hefty gains for the Conservatives and Reform as Keir Starmer’s unpopular administration continues to lose support.
The model, which is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy, projects Labour to lose a whopping 117 seats, bringing their total to 294 and crucially below the required number for a majority.
Most of these would be lost to the Conservatives who are set to gain 78 seats bringing their tally to 199.
Reform is also projected to capitalise on Labour’s demise, gaining 25 seats to take their tally to 30, making them bigger than the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru combined.
For the Tories, gains are focused in the east and south of England and the Midlands, whilst Reform has strong pockets in the 'red wall' and around the Thames estuary.
EXPLORE: Is your seat projected to swing right?
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats would lose three seats reducing their total to 69 and the SNP would gain 13 bringing them to 22.
Thanks to First Past The Post, the Liberal Democrats' 69 seats would be more than double Reform’s haul, despite Reform securing 21 per cent of the vote share to the Lib Dem’s 11.7 per cent.
At the top, Labour would still be the biggest party by vote share with 27.1 per cent of the electorate’s backing. The Conservatives are closing in though on 26.0 per cent.
This comes after it was revealed Labour had suffered a net loss of 24 council seats since the General Election in July.
In a complete reversal of fortunes, the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 23 seats. Reform managed +6.
A series of unpopular decisions implemented by Starmer and his government have contributed to this demolition at the ballot box.
They include raising taxes by £40billion, removing the winter fuel payment for millions of pensioners, slapping farmers with death duties and the scale of donations Starmer and his colleagues received.
This goes without mentioning the Sue Gray fiasco, accusations of politicising the civil service, a Chancellor rewriting her CV, the surrendering of the Chagos Islands and the embarrassing resurfacing of childish, vitriolic remarks many cabinet ministers said of Donald Trump before he won a second term.
Starmer insists he is making the tough decisions now (early in his term) to reap the rewards later down the line.
It is important to remember that the Nowcast model indicates how a General Election could play out if an election were to be held today, not in a few months or years' time.
It is not a prediction for the next election, rather a snapshot of public opinion at the time of publishing.
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PROJECTED REFORM GAINS:
Amber Valley
Barnsley South
Basildon and Billericay
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
Bradford South
Burnley
Cannock Chase
Chatham and Aylesford
Dagenham and Rainham
Derby South
Dudley
Folkestone and Hythe
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
Heywood and Middleton North
Hornchurch and Upminster
Kingston upon Hull East
Llanelli
Makerfield
North Durham
North Warwickshire and Bedworth
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
South West Norfolk
Sunderland Central
Tipton and Wednesbury
Walsall and Bloxwich
PROJECTED TORY GAINS:
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Altrincham and Sale West
Ashford
Aylesbury
Banbury
Bexleyheath and Crayford
Bournemouth West
Bracknell
Brent West
Buckingham and Bletchley
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
Burton and Uttoxeter
Chipping Barnet
Chelsea and Fulham
Cities of London and Westminster
Clwyd North
Congleton
Dartford
Darlington
Derbyshire Dales
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
Earley and Woodley
Eastleigh
Ely and East Cambridgeshire
Finchley and Golders Green
Forest of Dean
Gloucester
Gravesham
Harlow
Hendon
Hertford and Stortford
Hyndburn
Isle of Wight West
Kensington and Bayswater
Kettering
Lichfield
Lowestoft
Mansfield
Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Mid Derbyshire
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Monmouthshire
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
Northampton South
North East Derbyshire
North East Hampshire
North East Hertfordshire
North Somerset
North West Cambridgeshire
Nuneaton
Pendle and Clitheroe
Peterborough
Poole
Portsmouth North
Reading West and Mid Berkshire
Redcar
Redditch
Ribble Valley
Rochester and Strood
Rother Valley
Rugby
Scunthorpe
South Derbyshire
South Dorset
South East Cornwall
South Norfolk
Southend West and Leigh
Stoke-on-Trent South
St Austell and Newquay
Stourbridge
Suffolk Coastal
Swindon North
Tamworth
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Welwyn Hatfield
Worthing West
Ynys Mon
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