New polling has shown the shocking rate Labour is haemorrhaging support in Scotland with Reform being one of the main beneficiaries.
Keir Starmer’s unpopular leadership has seen Labour’s vote share north of the border crash from 30 to 23 per cent.
That means if an election was held today, Labour would lose 13 of their 37 seats, equating to 35 per cent of their representation in Westminster.
And many of those remaining 24 seats concentrated in the central belt would be won with razor thin majorities- so much so a 1.5 per cent swing to the SNP would see them lost another 10 seats.
Labour voters appear to be taking an ‘anyone but Labour’ approach, with the Conservatives the main winner up three per cent, while Reform and the Liberal Democrats are up two.
A Scottish Conservative spokesperson said: “Scottish voters who put their trust in Labour at the general election are already feeling betrayed by their broken promises on taxation and winter fuel payments for pensioners.
“Like the SNP, Labour’s solution to everything is to hike taxes. Scottish workers and businesses, already the highest taxed in the UK, are reeling from Rachel Reeves’ brutal budget.
“Only the Scottish Conservatives are standing up to the socialist consensus at Holyrood, which is crippling household finances and economic growth.”
This leaves Reform within touching distance of becoming the third biggest party in Scotland by vote share, just one per cent behind the Conservatives on 15 per cent. The SNP would be the largest on 30 per cent.
Remain-backing SNP-led Scotland may not appear to be the most fertile election ground for Reform, but as Professor Sir John Curtice outlined this weekend, the plummeting approval of Westminster’s Labour government has been damaging Labour in Scotland’s devolved parliament based in Holyrood too.
The polling guru revealed that in August, just seven per cent of Labour voters were switching to Reform, but that figure has doubled to 14 per cent as Starmer’s unpopular leadership continued to drain Labour support in Scotland.
Reform are set to become the third biggest party in Scotland as Keir Starmer's unpopularity continues
PAReform, once reliant on winning disillusioned Conservative voters, is now primarily benefitting from Labour, opening up the possibility of it becoming a ‘key player’ in the Scottish parliament.
According to Professor Curtice, Nigel Farage’s party could win as many as a dozen seats if the Scottish elections were held tomorrow.
Crucially, this would mean neither the unionist or independence parties could form a majority government and may have to reach out to Reform to form a government.
Such a move would severely harm the SNP’s ambition for a second referendum on Scottish independence.
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It is a similar story in Wales with Reform surging at Labour’s expense. Latest analysis shows Reform could become the third biggest party in Senedd (Wales' Parliament), increasing their members from zero to 17.
Senedd elections use a proportional voting system which more accurately reflects the electorate’s wishes, benefitting Reform far more than Westminster’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system.
Reform secured 223,018 votes in Wales in the General Election, making them the third biggest party by vote share, but had no MPs elected.
Their candidates came second in 13 constituencies in Wales, part of some 98 in the UK as a whole.
