Labour is projected to lose 94.5 per cent of their seats in Scotland, shocking polling by Opinium has revealed.
The research, conducted between March 5 and 7, shows Scottish voters abandoning Labour in droves, with Starmer’s party losing 35 of the 37 seats they won in July 2024.
It means Labour would be left with just two seats north of the border, Ian Murray’s Edinburgh South patch and Douglas Alexander’s Lothian East constituency.
That scenario could only be described as a catastrophic wipeout as safe Labour seats like East Kilbride and Strathaven and Hamilton and Clyde Valley fall to a resurgent SNP.
MAPPED: Labour's wipe-out in Scotland
MAPPED: Labour's wipe-out in Scotland
MAPPED: Labour's wipe-out in Scotland
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Labour’s Joani Reid won a 9,057-vote majority in the former seat while Imogen Walker took an equally dominant 9,472 vote win in the latter.
The SNP are the biggest beneficiaries of Labour’s unpopularity gaining 35 seats and taking their total to 44. That’s 77 per cent of all seats in Scotland.
Despite Nicola Sturgeon’s dramatic fall from grace and the scandals that have rocked the SNP, the Scottish public appear unconvinced by the right and remain resolutely left wing.
The Conservatives are projected to retain their five seats while the Liberal Democrats would lose one seat also putting them on five.
Current electoral map of Scotland
Current electoral map of Scotland
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In a blow to Nigel Farage, Reform UK is expected to win zero seats according to Opinium’s research. The party has some broad support, but it is not concentrated enough to win seats in Westminster’s First Past The Post System.
It comes after Labour made a series of unpopular decisions that drained Scottish Labour’s support.
This included stripping the winter fuel payment from up to one million Scottish pensioners, slapping Scottish farmers with death duties, imposing VAT on fees for 30,000 Scottish pupils in private schools and drawing up plans to scale up renewable energy programmes involving turbines, hydro dams and solar farms in Scotland.
Another factor commentators have pointed to in the SNP resurgence is the leadership of John Swinney.
After disgraced former leader Nicola Sturgeon’s demise, Humza Yousaf took over but failed to steady the ship and was out in a year.
John Swinney then became First Minister of Scotland and, in a shift from previous administrations, has deliberately kept quiet on the SNP’s quest for independence, focusing instead on restoring competence and consistency which has resonated with voters.
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John Swinney has gone on record to attack Reform UK, labelling them 'far right'
PALastly, commentators have highlighted how Reform’s rise could actually be contributing to the current dominant projection for the SNP.
Despite being a right wing, anti-immigration party, Reform has a proven track record of winning working class votes from Labour, not just the Conservatives.
As a result, Labour’s base is being eroded by not just the SNP, but also Reform UK.
Indeed, polls for Scotland’s devolved parliament in Edinburgh (for which elections are due in May 2026) have indicated Reform’s support in Scotland is now bigger than the Conservatives.
A YouGov last week put Farage’s party on 17 per cent for the headline constituency vote, five points ahead of the Scottish Tories.
Reform is also on 18 per cent for the regional vote - six points ahead of the Conservatives.
The SNP matched their Westminster dominance in the Scottish parliament polling, recording 33 per cent headline support from decided voters, compared to Labour's 21 per cent.
All this is despite the fact Reform UK has no Scottish leader and is still in its infancy compared to the establishment parties.
As the academics who carried out the study highlighted, Reform’s score may well have been higher if it weren't for Nigel Farage who is the most unpopular leader north of the border.
"This can be considered a serious constraint on Reform’s growth in Scotland, but it is worth keeping in mind this is a party beginning from a standing start,” said the researchers.
