Labour would be virtually wiped out in Scotland if an election was held tomorrow, latest polling has revealed.
Keir Starmer’s party would lose 31 of its 37 seats it won in the General Election in July 2024, a whopping 83.7 per cent of its representation north of the border.
The only constituencies which would remain red are Lothian East, Edinburgh South, Airdrie and Shotts, Hamilton and Clyde Valley, Rutherglen and Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
All 31 of the lost seats would flip to the SNP who are enjoying a surge in fortunes, despite former leader Nicola Sturgeon’s dramatic fall from grace.
Projected electoral map of Scotland
GBN
This would mean safe Labour seats like East Kilbride and Strathaven- where Joani Reid won a 9,057-vote majority- would flip to the Stephen Flynn’s SNP.
Similarly, East Renfrewshire and Bathgate and Linlithgow, where Labour’s Blair McDougall and Kirsteen Sullivan won 8,000+ majorities, would be lost.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives would retain their five seats from July 2025 while the Liberal Democrats would retain their six.
Current electoral map of Scotland
GBN
Conducted by Norstat UK Political Polling, the research showed Reform UK neck and neck with Labour in terms of vote share.
It found Reform would have the support of 17 per cent of the electorate, just one point behind Labour’s 18 per cent and four ahead of the Conservatives.
But despite receiving more support than the Tories who are tipped to win five seas, Farage’s party does not have enough concentrated support to win a single seat.
The Reform leader has attacked Westminster’s First Past The Post system which uses a ‘winner takes all’ system.
Farage advocates for a Proportional Representation system whereby seats are allocated according to number of votes received. A fully proportional system would give Reform 17 per cent of seats, in theory.
What makes this polling particularly worrying for Labour is the fact elections for Scotland’s devolved parliament are due in May 2026, just 15 months away.
As this polling reveals, Scotland’s voters are deeply unhappy with Labour and appear to backing the SNP and Reform.
The nationalist party is currently the largest in Holyrood with 62 members, followed by the Tories on 31 and Labour on 22. Reform has no members.
Farage campaigning in Scotland in 2019 for UKIP
Getty
However, thanks to the proportional system used by the Scottish parliament (and because the SNP dominated the last Scottish parliament election so decisively) it is Reform UK who are currently projected to be the biggest winners come May 2026.
Latest polling of voting intention for Scotland’s parliament reveals Farage’s party would gain 14 seats (of 129), up from zero.
This would put Reform within touching distance of the Conservatives who are projected to win 16 seats and Labour on 20.
The SNP remain comfortably ahead with a projection of 58 seats, a result which would give John Swinney a massive mandate in Holyrood.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice says Scottish Labour's decline is a result pf deeply unpopular decision enacted in Westminster, such as stripping Scottish pensioners of the winter fuel payment.
The SNP has said the new poll shows Anas Sarwar (leader of Scottish Labour in the Scottish parliament) is “reaping the consequences of broken promises".
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
Sir John Curtice told GB News that political parties can 'no longer aim for centre ground'GB NewsSNP MSP Fulton MacGregor said: “This poll confirms what we already know – support for Labour is imploding under Anas Sarwar’s leadership.
“It’s hardly surprising given Labour’s track record at Westminster, the highlights of which include slashing the Winter Fuel Payment, adopting the two-child cap as their own policy, hiking National Insurance, betraying WASPI women, and sky-high energy prices.
“Labour has shown that their election promises are nothing more than an empty ploy to win power – they cannot deliver in Government. Voters are now asking: why would that be any different in Scotland?
“In opposition in Holyrood they even failed to back a budget that would deliver record funding for Scotland’s NHS and restore the Winter Fuel Payment that their own party cut.
“With a slew of polls suggesting Labour are on course for their worst ever Scottish Parliament election result, more and more questions are being asked about Anas Sarwar's weak and indecisive leadership.
“While Mr Sarwar puts party before country, the SNP is putting Scotland’s interests first and looks forward to setting out a positive vision for our nation in 2026.”
Scottish elections are due in May 2026. The next general election is due in 2029.
