Rishi Sunak's excuses for polling failure risk starting to wear thin - analysis by Christopher Hope
Rishi Sunak has lost two by-elections today
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Nowadays even less than a week is a long time in politics. On Monday I wrote how some Tories were talking up the unlikely possibility of winning both the Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire by-elections.
Fast forward five days and the party has recorded disastrous defeats in both seats which bode ill for the party's hopes in the red wall (Tamworth) and its heartlands (Mid-Beds).
Conservative party chairman Greg Hands has tried to find some optimism in the defeats, pointing out that vote for Labour barely improved in Tamworth and actually reversed in Mid-Beds.
He's right. But it also means that the Tory leader Rishi Sunak has failed to address a fundamental problem: how to persuade his supporters to get out and vote.
Tory MPs have been pointing out that if votes for Reform UK - which sits to the right of the Tories - had gone to the Conservatives the party would have won both seats.
Reform's leader Richard Tice knows this. "Twice in the same night have Reform UK ensured Tories lost their seat with this by election result," he said this morning.
Tory MPs are now crying out for more 'Conservative' policies to fire up the party's supporter base.One Tory MP texted me his own five point plan: delivering on Sunak's pledge to stop boats, curbing legal net migration, ditching non-core policies like the gay conversion therapy ban and tax cuts for small businesses and families.
Sunak's allies may want to blame the hangover of the Tory leadership chaos of last year when first Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss were turfed out of office by the party's MPs.
But this argument looks increasingly thin. The responsibility lies with Sunak who celebrates one year as Prime Minister on Tuesday.
That anniversary is significant - as it marks the end of a one-year grace period when Sir Graham Brady, the 1922 chairman, can start to count letters of no confidence in the leader.
No one is seriously suggesting that Sunak is replaced - but if he fails to offer up more policies to appeal to the Right - like the watering down of net zero targets - letters might start to be submitted.
It only needs more than 15 per cent of Tory backbenchers to submit a letter for a vote of no confidence in the leader to be held.
A Johnson/Truss ally was scathing this morning, pointing out that apart for a few weeks last summer, Sunak has overseen UK economic policy since Feb 2020, as Chancellor and Prime Minister.
The ally said: "The economic malaise lies with him. His supporters hounded out Boris and Liz, yet voters are still to get a positive economic vision from him. That is what we need to avoid catastrophe."
Sunak will keep fighting on. But even a rumoured ministerial reshuffle next week is unlikely to help unless it is matched by boldly Conservative policies.
The Tories' disarray is mirrored by the surging optimism of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who I saw in Mid-Bedfordshire this morning.
"The party for the future is this changed Labour Party," he told supporters. It looks increasingly like voters are going to agree with him at next year's expected general election.