'They won't go away!' Pollster pinpoints key number for Farage as Reform UK pose fatal threat to Tories

Reform UK obtained 14 per cent of the vote on July 4, returning five MPs to the House of Commons.

However, Pedley appeared to suggest the populist party's ceiling could hit double that figure.

Speaking at an Ipsos fringe event at the 2024 Conservative Party conference, Pedley said: "It's also worth bearing in mind, you won't find them particularly going away.

"Our monthly Ipsos political poll actually has 28 per cent of the public having a favourable view of Reform UK this month, which whilst negative is still the highest level of favourability we've recorded.

"That is something that could impact both of the major parties in this Parliament."

Pedley also detailed Reform UK's "profound impact" in the 2024 General Election," adding: "Penny Mordaunt may well have been on the stage this week had it not she not lost her seat, Liz Truss obviously a former Prime Minister."

Mordaunt, who served as Commons Leader and was seen as a potential successor to Rishi Sunak, lost her Portsmoth North constituency by just 780 votes on July 4.

Reform UK received 8,501 votes, ensuring Labour managed to snatch the port constituency for the first time since 2005.

Truss also appeared to echo Pedley's assessment when she blamed Reform UK for her losing South West Norfolk at an event with The Telegraph's Tim Stanley earlier today.

The former Prime Minister lost to Labour's Terry Jermy by just 630 votes, with Reform UK hoovering up 9,958 ballots.

Pedley revealed that there were 152 seats where the Tories came second to Labour or the Liberal Democrats where Reform UK's vote share was greater than the margin of defeat.

The pollster cautioned attendees against "overstating" the potential opportunities for the Tory Party given Reform UK voters have become increasingly entrenched.

Experts believe just one-in-three Reform UK voters would have supported the Conservative Party if Farage failed to field a candidate in their respective constituency.

However, approximately 75 per cent of 2024 Reform UK voters backed the Tories in 2019.

The coalition of voters that delivered Boris Johnson his majority in 2019 drastically fragmented on July 4, ensuring Labour romped to victory with just 34 per cent of the vote.

Ipsos believe 24 per cent of 2019 Tories voted Reform UK, with 12 per cent supporting Labour and a further seven per cent siding with the Liberal Democrats.

The same voters were split on whether Farage would make a better Prime Minister than Sunak, with 34 per cent backing the Reform UK leader and 35 per cent supporting the outgoing Tory leader.

Despite Reform UK's damage in terms of vote share, Tory pollster Lord Robert Hayward warned against underestimating the threat from the Liberal Democrats in the Blue Wall.

Lord Hayward said: "It's easy to concentrate on Reform but one has to remember that the Tories lost 60 seats in rank terms to the Lib Dems and a hell of a lot more to the Labour Party.

"We are in the world of multi-party politics. It is easy to obsess about Reform because they're new but actually when it came to losing seats you don't have to go very far from here to find seats that the Tories lost to the Lib Dems."