Reform UK's clean run in the polls has ended following Rupert Lowe's suspension, and the fallout has raised questions about Nigel Farage's leadership and the populist party's electoral viability.
The shock outcome comes after the MP for Great Yarmouth was suspended from the party on Friday night and reported to the police over alleged threats of physical violence towards the party's chairman.
A statement from chair Zia Yusuf and chief whip Lee Anderson MP also said the party has received complaints from two female employees about alleged serious bullying in Lowe's offices.
As Lowe, who strenuously denies all allegations against him, trades verbal blows with Farage, a new YouGov poll has found that the party's disunity has dented its appeal to voters.
The row between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe has reversed Reform's meteoric rise in the polls - and impacted its projected number of seats
GettyImages/Electoral Calculus
YouGov revealed Reform’s support slipped from 25 per cent to 23 per cent, with the Tories witnessing a one-point boost to take Kemi Badenoch’s party to 22 per cent.
This is a significant reversal on last month's YouGov poll, which had Reform leading the pack for the first time on 25 per cent, with Labour trailing behind on 24 per cent and the Tories in third on 21 per cent.
A separate poll by YouGov has dealt a further blow to the party's leader.
A third of Reform UK voters (33 per cent) believe that the party would be doing better under a different leader to Farage, including a fifth (21 per cent) who think Reform would be doing “a lot” better with an alternative leader.
This is against another third of Reform UK voters (34 per cent) who believe that the party would be doing worse if Farage was not the leader, with a quarter (25 per cent) feeling that a different leader would not affect the party’s fortunes one way or the other.
Nonetheless, the belief among some Reform voters that the party could be doing better under a different leader is noticeably more prominent than among supporters of other parties, with just 14-16 per cent of Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem voters believing that a new leader would improve Reform’s fortunes.
What does this mean for Reform's electoral prospects?
It's hard to say this far out from a General Election. As Gawain Towler, Reform's longstanding head of press communications recently put it to GB News, "storms will come" as the party attempts to transition from a protest movement to a credible alternative to Labour and the Conservatives.
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The Rupert Lowe scandal has hurt the party's electoral prospects, our analysis suggests
GETTYHowever, the Rupert Lowe scandal has hurt the party's electoral prospects, our analysis suggests.
We ran YouGov's latest polling data through Electoral Calculus' prediction model to estimate the number of seats Reform would win if an election was held tomorrow.
Despite Labour's poor performance since taking power, the party would retain 168 seats, with the Conservatives hot on its heels with 161 seats.
Reform would come third with 154 seats - not an insignificant win for a new party, but it's a fall from grace from the recent polling, which has had the party out front.
