A Labour leader of an east London council has sounded the alarm over Reform's rising popularity in the capital, urging his party not to become "complacent" at a time when Nigel Farage's party is ahead in the opinion polls and a recent by-election upset suggests trouble is brewing.
Dominic Twomey, leader of Barking and Dagenham council, will be haunted by the results of the last General Election - Reform had a strong turnout in his borough.
Speaking to the BBC on Saturday, he said: "Never be complacent ever, ever. Once you start to be complacent and think that that sort of change can't happen, is when it happens."
Alex Wilson, Reform's first-ever London Assembly member, attributes his party's rising support in London to the "establishment's continued failure to deliver for working people".
Recent polling also put Reform winning 12 seats in London if an election was held tomorrow but challenges remain
Getty Images/Election Maps UK
Do they have a point?
Since by-elections serve as bellwethers of voter mood, Labour's loss last Thursday suggests Reform's appeal in central London should not be underestimated.
Labour lost the Vincent Square ward seat to the Conservatives, whose candidate, Martin Hayes, romped to victory with 978 votes, securing 45.4 per cent of the vote share.
This loss marks Westminster Labour’s second defeat in as many months. In September 2024, Labour lost the West End ward seat to the Conservatives, with the Tory vote jumping nearly nine per cent.
Labour’s candidate, Joanna Camadoo-Rothwell, came in second in the central London by-election with 700 votes, accounting for 32.5 per cent of the vote.
However, Reform's vote share surged, with Nigel Farage's party coming in third place, with their candidate, Nick Lockett, receiving 206 votes, equating to 9.6 per cent of the vote share.
Although there is still considerable ground to make up, the result marked a notable increase in support for Reform in the capital.
Recent polling also put Reform winning 12 seats in London if an election was held tomorrow, many in traditionally red areas of east London like Barking where Labour’s Nesil Caliskan won a 11,054-vote majority in July 2024.
While Labour would be the biggest losers with seven seats lost to Reform, the Conservatives aren’t safe either.
Badenoch’s party would lose five MPs in the capital to Reform, including Gareth Bacon whose 5,118-vote majority in Orpington would be wiped out, pollsters FindOutNow project.
It comes after a poll-aggregating model at the end of last year projected London boroughs Hornchurch and Upminster - will turn light blue for the first time at the next General Election.
This is consistent with the results on July 4, where Reform UK’s vote share in London constituencies hovered between 10 per cent and 15 per cent, with higher peaks in outer London boroughs like Havering, Barking, and Dagenham, where issues like immigration and dissatisfaction with establishment parties resonate more strongly.
Inner London, with its younger, more progressive electorate, saw lower support— often below 10 per cent —as Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Greens dominated.
LATEST MEMBERSHIP DEVELOPMENTS
Reform struggled to concentrate votes enough to win under Britain's first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system
REFORM UKHerein lies the challenge for Reform in the capital and beyond: the party struggled in the last election to concentrate votes enough to make a dent.
In the capital, for example, its votes were spread too thinly at the last election to overcome Labour’s urban dominance or the Conservatives’ remaining suburban strongholds.
It's polling has improved significantly since then, and has notched up a string of by-elections successes in the run-up to local elections in May, but Britain's first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system remains a massive stumbling block.
Reform won 14.3 per cent of the national vote share at the last election , but this only translated into five seats in Parliament.
As one insider tells GB News, history will repeat itself if the insurgent party does not concentrate its support in areas.
They explained: "Our problem is depth, not width. We have support everywhere but it's not deep enough to win a first-past-the-post election.
"So we can shovel up the millions of votes, but unless we learn to focus effectively, that does not necessarily translate into hundreds of seats."
For Reform to scale, it will have to "succeed in creating a party organisation across the country because that's what they don't [currently] have", polling guru John Curtice tells GB News.
"It remains to be seen whether Reform UK can embed itself in the social and organisational life of the country," he added.
