Reform UK has recorded its highest-ever share in Scotland ahead of next year's Holyrood election.
The shock boost comes as 70 per cent of Labour members regard Nigel Farage's party as the "biggest threat" and a growing number call for a new leader before the next General Election in a separate poll.
Survation’s latest polling in Scotland, conducted on behalf of communications firm Quantum Communications, has Nigel Farage overtaking the Scottish Conservatives to claim third place in Holyrood constituency voting intentions.
The poll finds that were an election held today, Reform UK would win 17 per cent of the constituency vote, five per cent ahead of the Conservatives, and 16 per cent of the Regional list vote, three per cent ahead of the Conservatives.
The poll finds that were an election held today, Reform UK would win 17 per cent of the constituency vote
Flourish/Survation
The poll finds that were an election held today, Reform UK would win 17 per cent of the constituency vote, five per cent ahead of the Conservatives, and 16 per cent of the Regional list vote, three per cent ahead of the Conservatives.
This puts the party on course to win 14 seats in next year’s Scottish Parliament election, meaning it would finish ahead of both the Greens and Liberal Democrats.
This exceeds John Curtice's estimate, with the election guru handing Farage's party ten seats in the Scottish Parliament.
As Curtice explains, this fragmentation north of the border could make it challenging for any clear coalition to form, either among pro-independence parties like the SNP and Greens, or among unionist parties such as Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats.
"This would potentially constitute a blocking minority," he told GB News.
Labour is still ahead of the insurgent party on 23 per cent in the latest poll but this will be cold comfort for Starmer as a Survation survey of party members for Labour List finds 70 per cent of Labour members view Farage’s party is the greatest political threat to Labour, despite its handful of MPs.
This compared to just 16.2 per cent for the Conservative Party. Only 3.2 per cent chose the Liberal Democrats, and another 3.2 per cent chose the Greens.
Starmer's headaches do not stop there. The Survation survey for Labour List shows the PM's approval ratings have plummeted among party members, with a third now calling for a new leader before the next General Election.
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Seventy per cent of Labour members view Farage’s party is the greatest political threat to Labour
Nigel FarageOf those who said a new leader should take over from Starmer, over half (56.65 per cent) opted for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, despite him not being an MP.
Furthermore, the PM received his most negative approval rating in Scotland (-14) where Reform is in the ascendant.
It comes after separate polling suggested Reform UK could pick up several councils at the local elections in May, including Derbyshire, Doncaster and Durham.
The party also appears to have a chance of winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, which is expected to be held on May 1.
