SHOCK poll reveals why voters are backing Reform on eve of election - and it doesn't bode well for Labour

Nigel Farage discusses Reform UK's latest polling and relations with Donald Trump on BBC R4
GB News
Jack Walters

By Jack Walters


Published: 30/04/2025

- 12:16

Updated: 30/04/2025

- 14:07

Nigel Farage has a monopoly on the one issue that transcends the traditional left-right political divide, polling suggests

Concerns about immigration are propelling Nigel Farage towards a historic result in tomorrow’s Local Elections, a shock new opinion poll has found.

The survey, conducted by More in Common, found two-thirds of those planning to vote for Reform UK tomorrow said their most important concern was “national policies on immigration”.


Meanwhile, a plurality of Labour, Tory and Liberal Democrat voters cited competency at running local councils are the most important factor.

Despite the divide, Reform UK counts down for polls to open with a one-point lead over Kemi Badenoch’s Tories - 26 per cent to 25 per cent.

Labour is languishing in a rather distant third on 18 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats breathing down Sir Keir Starmer’s neck on 17 per cent.

The issue of immigration - fresh in the minds of voters as yet more images showing new arrivals at Dover flood in on social media and the front pages - looks unlikely to go away.

Insiders have told GB News that warmer weather conditions could result in an influx of arrivals over the coming weeks, with temperatures hitting 28C in this week’s mini-heatwave.

More than 10,000 migrants have already completed the perilous 21-mile journey, the People’s Channel has exclusively revealed.

Starmer is facing more pressure than ever to deal with the migrant crisis, with his current pledge to “smash the gangs” looking close to being in tatters.

The Prime Minister was previously tasked with fending off Farage’s crusade but will now need to contend with a growing gaggle of Labour MPs pushing for firmer action, including potentially leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.

Nigel Farage (left), polling data on issues that matter to Reform voters (right)

SHOCK poll reveals why voters are backing Reform on eve of election - and it doesn't bode well for Labour

Getty Images/MoreinCommon

Despite local authorities having little to no say on the migration crisis, councils have found themselves facing the brunt of the fury from voters in the first 10 months of Starmer’s premiership.

The use of migrant hotels and the imminent extension to provide taxpayer-funded rental accommodation will undoubtedly exacerbate the issue, leaving Lee Anderson to set out a grassroots plan to end the use in Reform-run local authorities.

The Prime Minister is looking to roll out tough measures to curb Channel crossings. Starmer, who earlier this month flexed his muscles about deportations, is putting forward measures to close a loophole which sees foreign students come to the UK on graduate visas before taking up low-paid jobs in the "gig economy" or care sector.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also vowing to ban foreign sex offenders from claiming asylum in the UK. However, Farage last week laid down the gauntlet by putting forward a four-point migration plan.

The Reform UK leader is hellbent on leaving the ECHR, a position which is beginning to transcend traditional left-right political divides.He is also pledging to curb net migration and promising to appoint a Deportation Minister.

And the issue of net migration could spell trouble for the Prime Minister’s electoral chances. Amid speculation of Labour returning a border-busting Freedom of Movement arrangement for under 30s living in the EU, the UK is expected a population boom of five million over the course of the next decade.

Experts even expect net migration levels in Britain to exceed those of the country’s European allies for the first time, soaring past both the Netherlands and Ireland.

However, not everyone is concerned about the issue of immigration going into tomorrow’s Local Elections."Labour voters, for the most part, are not concerned about migration and, for the most part, are in favour of reversing the Brexit decision", polling guru Sir John Curtice told GB News.

More in Common’s survey still found issues such as potholes, council tax, affordable housing, anti-social behaviour, and public transport weighed heavily on voters' minds.

Nigel Farage

Farage is hellbent on leaving the ECHR, a position which is beginning to transcend traditional left-right political divides.

PA

There was also no great love for Farage when respondents were asked who was the most effective leader. Around one-in-four said Farage, putting the Reform UK leader ahead of the Prime Minister on 19 per cent and well ahead of Badenoch on eight per cent.

However, “none of the above” emerged as the clear frontrunner with 41 per cent responding with disaffection towards the current crop of leaders.

Even though immigration could propel Farage’s party to county hall supremacy, Reform faces a major test once it grabs the levers of local power.

From waste management to education, the insurgent party will have a record for voters to judge them on. Failing to deliver could cement Reform’s place as a “protest party”, but improving the lives of people across England has the chance to cast Farage’s net even wider by combining populist zeal with an established track record.