If recent polling is anything to go by, Britain is bitterly divided, with Reform UK, Conservatives and Labour neck and neck.
This splintering was reinforced this week, with a mega poll giving Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage a three-way tie on 24 per cent, although the increasing efficiency of Reform's vote handed the party a narrow win.
This allowed Farage to crow that Reform would be the biggest party if an election was held tomorrow, although it would fall far short of a majority.
A new poll by YouGov (21-22 April) gives him another reason to gloat, with Reform increasing its lead over Labour and the Conservatives on 25, 23 and 20 per cent, respectively.
All this momentum raises a salient question: can Reform truly go at it alone, or does it need the Conservatives to defeat Labour?
Before we tackle the million-dollar question, it's worth casting our minds back to the days leading up to the General Election.
The phrase “A vote for Reform is a vote for Labour” - a centrepiece of the Conservatives' campaign - turned out to be more than a rhetorical device: Farage split the vote on the right, leading Rishi Sunak's party to a historic defeat.
Reform and the Conservatives should club together, polling suggests, but recent history also provides Reform with a template for breaking the stranglehold of the two main parties
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Labour secured 412 seats to form the largest majority government in 25 years. Meanwhile (thanks to the quirks of Britain's first-past-the-post voting system) Reform won only five seats on 14 per cent of the popular vote or around four million votes.
This cautionary tale prompted Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick this week to float a Reform-Tory tie-up ahead of 2029.
In a leaked audio recording, Jenrick can be heard telling students that infighting on the right will produce the "nightmare scenario" where "Starmer sails in through the middle as a result of the two parties being disunited. I don't know about you, but I'm not prepared for that to happen".
Speaking to the UCL Conservative association dinner in late March, he said: "I want the fight to be united. And so, one way or another, I'm determined to do that and to bring this coalition together and make sure we unite as a nation as well."
Does Jenrick have a point?
Recent polling suggests Tory-Reform coalition would be bullet-proof.
A poll from More in Common last month put Reform and Labour neck-and-neck at 25 per cent, with the Tories trailing behind in third place at 24 per cent.
We ran these percentages through the Electoral Calculus seat calculator to see how this would track in a General Election.
Under the modelling, a Reform-Tory collaboration would have a commanding majority of 351 seats if an election was held tomorrow.
The latest More in Common poll makes the case even stronger, with Reform projected to gain 175 new seats around the country, including in every region of England and in Wales.
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The SNP in Scotland garnered enough support to destroy the traditional two-party system at the ballot box in 2015
PAHistory is not filled with success stories either. The SDP's Roy Jenkins repeatedly failed to wrest power from the two main parties during the 1980s.
Despite significant public support, his party failed to break the stranglehold.
"They got swallowed up because they couldn't maintain the momentum. They didn't have depth. They also didn't have a national or local power base," a Reform UK insider previously told GB News.
However, Farage can draw on a recent case study to prove that an outsider can muscle its way in and reshape British politics.
The SNP in Scotland garnered enough support to destroy the traditional two-party system at the ballot box in 2015. Before that seismic election, the SNP was trailing in third place behind Labour and the Conservatives.
The first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system effectively propelled the SNP to power. The party's gains came largely at the expense of Labour, as many voters who supported Scottish independence tactically voted for the SNP to ensure that Scotland would have a significant say in Westminster, fearing a Conservative majority.
"There is no golden rule that says that third parties cannot gain seats," elections guru John Curtice previously told GB News, adding that a similar story could play out for Reform in 2029.
