'The train will move on!' Reform UK eyes by-election glory in Labour heartland as countdown officially begins

Benedict Spence on how Rupert Lowe’s expulsion from Reform UK will affect …
GB News
Adam Chapman

By Adam Chapman


Published: 16/03/2025

- 06:00

Updated: 18/03/2025

- 08:56

Mike Amesbury officially stepped down as an MP on Monday, kicking off the race to replace him.

Reform UK hopes a win at the looming Runcorn and Helsby by-election will put the Rupert Lowe row to bed, GB News can reveal.

It comes after Mike Amesbury announced that he would formally step down as an MP after punching a constituent, triggering a by-election in the safe Labour seat, kicking off the race to replace him.


The by-election always represented Reform's first real test but the recent infighting between Rupert Lowe and Nigel Farage has raised the stakes.

The latest polling suggests the controversy has impacted the party's approval ratings so a win is sorely needed to reframe the narrative.

Nigel Farage (left), polling projection chart (right)

Reform UK hopes a win at the looming Runcorn and Helsby by-election will put the Rupert Lowe row to bed

Getty Images/Lord Ashcroft Polls

Or, as Reform's former head of communications, Gawain Towler puts it, the by-election offers a chance to turn the page on all the negative publicity.

"It's not out of the question at all and it will be bloody hard work, but if we manage to nick Runcorn, all of this will be forgotten," he told GB News.

The party campaigner added: "The train will move on."

Given the stakes, Reform will be breathing a sigh of relief at polling released on Friday, which puts the party in pole position in the upcoming by-election despite the recent infighting.

Lord Ashcroft Polls puts Nigel Farage's party ahead of Labour by 40 per cent to 35 per cent when respondents are weighted on their likelihood to vote, with the Tories third on 10 per cent.

However, when the polls include only those who say they are certain to vote, the Reform lead rises to nine points in a 22 per cent swing since July.

The local May elections also offer Reform a chance to reclaim the narrative.

Runcorn bu-election pollA new poll has tipped Reform UK to overturn a massive Labour majority and win the upcoming Runcorn & Helsby by-electionLORD ASHCROFT POLLS

As Towler explains, the party needs to "knuckle down" and "refocus", adding: "We need to deliver on the solid promises made to branches that they should have some authority over their own existence. We must make the branches feel that they're loved, because they are putting the hard work in on the ground in all these constituencies, all the areas of the local council."

Farage's ex-advisor says the Rupert Lowe row has been regrettable, adding that such setbacks are par for the course as the party professionalises.

"As we look to grow, it's not been fun at all for anybody,not for those who are the protagonists nor for those who are watching. But the prize of changing our country for the better is there," he told GB News.

Towler continued: "To get there, we need to realise that we are not just responsible for our own actions,but we're responsible for the hopes of millions. That's a bigger picture we must all remember."