Reform UK is on track to inflict more damage in Labour's so-called Red Wall than Boris Johnson did in 2019.
The bombshell mega poll comes days after a separate poll by Survation found the insurgent party sweeping Labour's traditional heartland, with support in the North and Midlands surging from 18 per cent it achieved at the last general election to 30 per cent.
The latest poll from More In Common suggests Labour's Red Wall gains at the last General Election would not only be reversed but Keir Starmer's party would lose more of them than in 2019, when then-Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority by turning Red Wall seats blue for the first time.
The new poll of at least 2,000 people has Labour retaining only six of the 42 original Red Wall seats if an election was held tomorrow, with the majority flipping to Reform, not the Conservatives.
Polling has Labour retaining only six of the 42 original Red Wall seats if an election was held tomorrow, with the majority flipping to Reform
More In Common
Under this modelling, Reform would become the largest party in Britain, securing as many as 180 seats, 150 of which would flip from Starmer's party. Labour and the Tories would be tied on 165 seats each.
Why the Red Wall wipeout is so significant
Elections guru John Curtice has previously poured cold water on Reform's inroads in the Red Wall, pointing out the working-class voters who deserted Starmer's party en masse in 2019 have not returned.
At the last General Election, Labour barely increased its support in the Red Wall. In fact, Starmer's vote share in 31 Red Wall seats actually declined despite the party’s landslide victory.
A post-election analysis by polling expert and former YouGov president Peter Kellner suggested Labour's reclaiming of its traditional heartland was far more a product of the collapse of the Conservatives and voters shifting to Reform.
Although Curtice suggests Reform's appeal in the Red Wall had reached its natural limit, the new polling upends this assumption, with greater projected gains suggesting the insurgent party has a greater untapped base to go after.
Other findings from the new poll
The Welsh Valleys, including Merthyr Tydfil - the seat of Labour’s first leader - would fall almost entirely to Reform UK, while the SNP would regain much of the Scottish Central Belt.
Ten of the 23 Cabinet Ministers would lose their seats, nine to Reform UK, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Cabinet Office boss Pat McFadden and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper. Health Secretary Wes Streeting would lose his seat to an independent candidate.
Other cabinet ministers to lose their seats to Reform include:
- Defense Secretary John Healey (Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, Reform UK Gain)
- Education Secretary and Minister for Women and Equalities Bridget Phillipson (Houghton and Sunderland South, Reform UK Gain)
- Energy Secretary Ed Miliband (Doncaster North, Reform UK Gain)
- Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds (Stalybridge and Hyde, Reform UK Gain)
- Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy (Wigan, Reform UK Gain)
- Health Secretary Wes Streeting (Ilford North, Independent Gain)
- Chief Whip Alan Campbell (Tynemouth, Reform UK Gain)
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The bombshell mega poll suggests resentment in Labour's traditional heartland has curdled since 2019
PAMeanwhile, the Conservatives would barely recover from their record defeat in 2024, gaining some seats from Labour and the Liberal Democrats but only matching their second worst result in modern history on 165 seats, and losing further seats to Reform, including Chief Whip Rebecca Harris and Shadow Environment Secretary Victoria Atkins.
The Liberal Democrats would hold almost all of their record-breaking gains from last July, losing just five seats to the Conservatives, one to Reform UK while gaining one seat from Labour.
The SNP would re-emerge as the largest Party in Scotland on 35 seats to Labour’s 15.
As well as holding onto their existing seats, the model predicts that Reform will gain 175 new seats around the country, including in every region of England and in Wales.
The model also estimates that in a General Election Labour would lose the seat of Runcorn and Helsby - which will be contested in a byelection on May 1 - with a 19.5 point two-way swing to Reform.
While Labour is losing most seats to Reform UK, our national voting intention polling shows that the party is losing almost as many votes to other parties on the left. While this is not translating into seat gains for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, bleeding vote share on their progressive flank is eroding Labour’s margin.
In a General Election, these ‘progressive defections’ would enable Reform and the Conservatives to win additional seats from them.
