Reform UK’s targets revealed as Farage just six-points behind Labour in damning poll

However, Reform UK have been the main beneficiaries from Labour’s blues in power, soaring from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.

Liberal Democrat and Green Party support remains almost unchanged on 13 per cent and seven per cent respectively.

Inputting the data on Electoral Calculus paints a stark picture for Labour after Starmer won with a 170-strong majority, giving the Prime Minister the parliamentary manpower to push ahead with a number of controversial policies.

However, Labour would likely lose 113 seats to reduce its Commons contingent to just 299.

The Tory Party would make 90 gains to get closer to mirroring its 2005 General Election result, including across a number of high profile seats including Boris Johnson’s former constituency of Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

Reform UK looks set to increase its number of MPs from just five to 26, with almost all the gains coming at the expense of Labour.

Snatching Heywood & Middleton North would likely represent a historic moment for the populist party given Ukip narrowly failed to snatch the seat when it held a by-election in 2014.

The populist party would likely pick up Amber Valley, Barnsley South, Bradford South, Burnley, Cannock Chase, Dudley, Folkestone & Hythe, Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, Heywood & Middleton North, Llanelli, Makerfield, Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr, Norfolk South West, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton, Rotherham, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Spen Valley, Stoke-on-Trent Central, and Tipton & Wednesbury.

All the seats are currently represented by Labour MPs in the House of Commons.

Reform UK would also surge from fourth to first to oust independent MP Adnan Hussain in Blackburn.

Reform UK’s Llanelli candidate Gareth Beer shared some insight as to why the populist party is making inroads in South West Wales.

Beer, who witnessed support surge from just 672 votes in 2021 to 11,247 on July 4, told GB News: “Reform Llanelli has been building for the last four years, gradually building momentum since the last Senedd Election. Labour and the Tories at a national level continually shoot themselves in the foot.

“At a local level, I have been involved in local issues, including the Stradey Park hotel debacle … Labour were nowhere to be seen, many locals viewed that as a betrayal by their elected representatives.”

He also argued that the decision to downgrade Llanelli’s Minor Injury Unit highlights Welsh Labour’s failure to get a grip of the crisis engulfing the NHS.

Toby McKenzie, who ran a tough fought campaign when Liz Truss lost South West Norfolk, added: “I think many people feel like me, isolated. A lot of unpleasant lies were told about Reform but more people are seeing through these.”

He also told GB News: “Labour needed to get in so those on the fence politically could see how disastrous they actually are. Having MPs in Parliament gives credibility, so again, this draws people in.”

McKenzie later argued that Reform UK is emerging as a “viable alternative” on policing, immigration, woke ideologies and even potholes.

Despite losing swathes of support since July 4, Labour would still likely form the next Government by calling on Sir Ed Davey to form a coalition.

A centre-right coalition of the Tories and Reform UK would fall well-short of the 326 seat threshold on just 237.

However, the latest More in Common poll demonstrates a clear problem for Starmer.

Reform UK might have posed a fatal threat to the Tories in the 2024 General Election but Farage can now wreak havoc for Labour as Starmer entered power with shallow levels of support in a number of key seats.

It also provides the populist party with the opportunity to make gains in next year’s Local Elections.

Polls will open in already strong Reform UK areas, including Essex, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and Norfolk.

However, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Kent and Staffordshire could also prove fruitful for Reform UK in 2025.

Despite the latest surge, Reform UK would likely require a further four-point boost to make a breakthrough of more than 100 seats.

Farage is keen to set his sights on entering No10 in 2029 but Reform UK would need to pull off an unprecedented double-digit surge to take them into power, albeit without an outright majority.

More in Common’s opinion poll also revealed that there are an additional 40 seats in touching distance for Reform UK.

Reform UK trail by less than one per cent in Hornchurch & Upminster, Basildon & Billericay, Chatham & Aylesford, Hull East, Walsall & Bloxwich, Durham North, Halifax, Dover & Deal and Stoke-on-Trent North.

The populist party would need to overcome a 2.5 per cent margin in Rochester & Strood, Sunderland Central, Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North, Sherwood Forest, Bolton North East and South Shields.

Bridgwater, Tamworth, Havant, Ashford, Nuneaton, Derby South, Mansfield, Blackpool North & Fleetwood, Gillingham & Rainham, Neath & Swansea East, Halesowen, Thurrock, Caerphilly, Houghton & Sunderland South, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Osett & Denby Dales, Bolton South & Walkden, Scarborough & Whitby, Dagenham & Rainham, Plymouth Moor View, Washington & Gateshead South, Birmingham Northfield, and Easington see Reform UK trail by five per cent or less.

However, JL Partners pollster Scarlett McGuire erred on the side of caution as the public remain unconvinced by the Conservative Party.

McGuire said: “I don’t think it’s been a very good start but they’ve got time to turn it around.

“I do think that they are in unprecedented bad territory for a new Labour Government but so is the opposition.”

Labour MP Mike Tapp championed the tough choices made by Starmer after entering No10.

Tapp told GB News: “The first 100 days have been quite interesting. We’ve actually delivered a lot. If you look at the fact that our NHS doctors are back at work, the trains are moving, we’ve set up the Border Security Command. All these things are vital for laying the foundations for growth.”