REVEALED: Four Tory MPs on defection WATCHLIST after Nigel Farage predicts moves to Reform UK

Nigel Farage revealed Reform UK is eyeing-up a handful of defections over the coming months, with an olive branch even being extended to a fan-favourite among GB News viewers.

Following Farage’s latest intervention, GB News decided to make a watch list of Tory MPs who might make the switch.

Suella Braverman

Age: 44

Majority: 6,079 in Fareham & Waterlooville

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: European Research Group

Suella Braverman is the only potential leadership contender to openly discuss working with Farage.

“There’s not much difference really between him and many of the policies that we stand for,” the 44-year-old said.

The former Home Secretary, who earlier this month urged Popular Conservatism supporters to talk Reform UK’s language, has since been tipped to defect if she fails to win the race to replace Rishi Sunak.

A senior Tory source claimed: “There’s now so much antagonism towards Suella Braverman that there is now a generally held view that she will defect.”

A Reform UK insider also revealed that the populist party “expects her to defect after losing the Tory leadership race”.

Responding to defection speculation, a spokesperson for the former Home Secretary swatted away any suggestion Braverman could switch to Reform.

“Suella has only recently been elected as a Conservative MP and has been a Conservative Party member for three decades,” they said.

Braverman’s mother Uma Fernandes even stood for the Tory Party, challenging now-Foreign Secretary David Lammy in Tottenham in 2001 and running in the Brent East by-election held in 2003.

The former Home Secretary spent a long time standing in no-hope electoral contests, including Leicester East in 2005 and as fourth choice on the Tories’ 2012 London list.

She also took on a number of high profile ministerial briefs since entering Parliament in 2015, serving Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.

However, Sunak decided to sack Braverman after the then-Home Secretary accused the Metropolitan Police of “play[ing] favourites” with pro-Palestine protesters.

Despite rumours swirling round Westminster, Braverman was re-elected as the MP for Fareham & Waterlooville with a majority slashed from 21,276 to just 6,079.

Reform UK, which ended up falling behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats, picked up 9,084 votes.

A well-connected Tory source even told GB News that the populist party should look to avoid accepting Braverman into the populist party’s fold.

The insider asked: “Why would Reform even want Suella Braverman?”

Farage appeared more than happy to accept Braverman as a Reform defector.

He told The Daily Express: “There’s a place for like-minded people but is that what she wants?”

​Mark Pritchard

Age: 57

Majority: 883 in The Wrekin

Brexit: Remain

Political leaning: Ukip Flirter

Despite voting for the UK to remain in the EU, Mark Pritchard once flirted with joining Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless as Ukip continued to search for a third defector.

“There was a time when I seriously considered it,” the Wrekin MP revealed in 2014.

Pritchard resigned from his role as deputy chairman in 2012, citing differences with the leadership over Europe and immigration.

He even worked with Reckless to defeat David Cameron through a motion calling for a “real terms cut” in the EU’s multi-annual budget.

Pritchard, who was first elected to the House of Commons in 2005, was only dissuaded from pivoting to the populist party after the then-Prime Minister committed to a Brexit referendum.

The 57-year-old also received praise from Farage’s former colleagues, with Ukip’s Wrekin association previously describing Pritchard as possessing “decent qualities”.

However, Pritchard has continuously warned supporting Farage, either through Ukip or Reform UK, was tantamount to a vote for Labour.

Asked about any potential defection, Pritchard told GB News: "Nigel and I have known each other for years. There is not much to report, given our usual discussions, to date, have normally centred around our mutual love of cigars."

Martin Vickers

Age: 73

Majority: 3,243 in Brigg & Immingham

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: Common Sense Group

Martin Vickers aligns with Reform UK in many, many ways.

As a Brexit-backing member of the Common Sense Group, Vickers was often on the same side as Anderson during the Ashfield MP’s stint as in the Conservative Party.

Vickers became particularly annoyed as MPs accused the National Trust of being “coloured by cultural Marxist dogma” by connecting properties in their care with colonialism.

The 73-year-old, who was first elected to represent residents in neighbouring Cleethorpes in 2010, was reportedly approached by Farage to form an electoral deal in 2015.

Farage was hoping to get a clear-run in Labour-held Great Grimsby and vowed not to stand a Ukip candidate against Vickers.

However, with no deal agreed, the Tories and Ukip split the right-wing vote, allowing Labour to hold the Eurosceptic seat.

Though today, Vickers has rejected reports about the decade-old talks with Ukip - as well as questions on a potential defection to Reform.

The veteran Tory told GB News: “Under no circumstances will I ever join Reform.

“I have been a Conservative Party member for 50 years - so why would I want to join a party that aims to obliterate my party?”

Vickers won Brigg & Inningham in the 2024 General Election with a majority of 3,243, down from a notional lead of 24,444 in 2019.

Reform UK’s Paul Ladlow picked up 10,594 votes, just behind the 12,662 ballots cast for Labour’s Najmul Hussain.

​Rebecca Harris

Age: 56

Majority: 3,251 in Castle Point

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: Brexit Heartlander

Castle Point is in many ways similar to Clacton.

The coastal Essex seat voted staunchly to leave the European Union, voters express great pride in both their British and English identity, and constituents have been represented by populist MPs.

Farage and Carswell have both made Clacton their home as voters across Tendring sided with Ukip and later Reform UK.

However, in an all-too-forgotten moment, ex-Tory MP Bob Spink defected to Ukip in 2008.

Spink, who left Ukip by the time Gordon Brown was defeated in 2010, defected after accusing CCHQ of failing to deal with “serious criminal and other irregularities” in Castle Point.

However, Rebecca Harris is in many ways nothing like her predecessor.

Harris is popular locally, served under Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, and was once lauded by Conservative Home as being part of a minority of Tory MPs not to participate in any serious rebellions.

And Harris also appears far from likely to want to switch.

The 56-year-old campaigned extremely hard to see off the threat posed by Reform UK’s Keiron McGill, warning a vote for the populist party would let Labour in through the back-door.

In an endorsement video recorded by Boris Johnson, the former Prime Minister said: “Only a vote for Rebecca can stop the nightmare on July 4 can stop the nightmare of a very big Labour majority.”

Harris’ majority was cut from 27,009 to just 3,251 as Reform UK snatched thousands of ex-Conservative voters.

During the campaign, McGill told GB News: “The Tories have really stepped up their efforts in Castle Point big time. They’ve sent out three different leaflets in a week.”

McGill later described his conversations with Harris during the campaign as “convivial and friendly”.

However, given Castle Point’s own political leaning and Harris’ position as a staunch Brexiteer, it might seem foolish to completely overlook the chance.

Explaining her decision to vote leave in 2016, Harris said: “My reason for wanting to leave the EU was simple, I believe that the laws which govern our lives, the decisions which effect each and every one of us, and the taxes that we must all pay should be decided here in this country, not in Brussels.”

​How likely is it that MPs will defect?

Despite momentum growing behind Reform UK, Tory insiders remain sceptical about the possibility of defections ahead of the looming leadership contest.

A Conservative source told GB News: “It is not likely until we get the result of the leadership contest but we definitely will need a right-leaning leader to stop that.”

Another insider added: “It would be petulant to defect now. MPs, especially on the right, will wait to see what happens in the leadership contest.

“If someone not from the right wins, maybe even Tom Tugendhat, I’m sure some will think about it.”

Reform was also bruised after dozens of Tory MPs most likely to switch to the populist party were ousted on July 4.

Red Wall MPs closely connected with Anderson were unable to hold on to their Brexit-backing seats, including Bassetlaw’s Brendan Clarke-Smith and Don Valley’s Nick Fletcher.

Lucy Allan, who stepped down as Telford’s MP ahead of polling day, also endorsed Reform UK’s candidate in the Shropshire town.

The composition of the Tory Party could also play a part in the potential for defections to Reform.

The number of survivors from the “Five Families” sympathetic to Reform UK have slumped drastically.

The Northern Research Group collapsed from 39 to five, with chair Sir Jake Berry losing Rossendale & Darwen by 5,628 votes.

Blue Collar Conservatism, which was able to return ex-Common Sense Minister Esther McVey to Parliament, saw its supporters drop from 155 to just 33.

The Common Sense Group also witnessed a slump from 30 to just eight.

New Conservatives, a now three-man band spearheaded by Danny Kruger, suffered poorly after Miriam Cates and Jonathan Gullis were among 18 members to face defeat.

However, losses from the European Research Group could prove the most significant.

The ERG, which was considered the most influential cabal of Conservatives in the Brexit years, suffered a fall from 107 MPs to just 24.

Centrist Conservatives also experienced a pummeling, with Bright Blue and the Tory Reform Group registering losses.

However, 26 Tory MPs have been elected to the House of Commons for the first time.

Time will tell where these MPs sit within the Conservative Party’s so-called broad church.

What is Reform UK planning?

Despite Farage discussing the prospect of defections, Reform UK's immediate focus is on professionalising the populist party.

The Clacton MP claimed the set-up cost Reform picking up 30 to 40 seats.

And new chairman Zia Yusuf updated supporters about the need for change ahead of the next general election.

In an email seen by GB News, Yusuf said: "Nigel Farage asked me to be Chairman in no small part because of my background in building one of the UK’s fastest growing companies from scratch.

"I know what it takes to harness enthusiasm and rapidly build something of significance."

He added: "We are under no illusions as to the scale of the task at hand. Mobilising such a vast grassroots movement will be the hardest work of our lives.

"But we are up to the task. We will rise to the challenge.

"You will shortly hear about our bold plans to build a democratised branch structure. I ask all of you who can, to consider how you may join our mission directly.

"To those who feel despondent, I promise you this country has faced darker hours and emerged victorious. We will do so again.

"In Nigel Farage we have the greatest political talent of our lifetimes. We have supporters and volunteers with more passion and enthusiasm than any other party.

"Now we will inject a level of organisation and energy never before seen in British politics.

"We must save our country from the abyss, and return it to greatness."