Reform UK "stand a very good chance of winning" in Mike Amesbury's constituency following his assault conviction, according to political commentator James Heale.
The Spectator journalist told GB News that Reform should "make a political point about the sentencing" after the MP's jail term was suspended.
Heale highlighted Reform's swift response to the incident, noting they had "a team out there leafleting that very weekend" after the assault occurred last October.
Despite Runcorn and Helsby being a Labour stronghold where the party won with "an absolute majority", Heale suggested Reform would be "quietly confident" given current polling.
James Heale says Farage should see Amesbury's suspended sentence as an opportunity
PARLIAMENT / GB NEWS
Former Labour MP Mike Amesbury has had his 10-week prison sentence suspended for two years following an appeal at Chester Crown Court.
Amesbury was initially jailed on Monday after admitting assault by beating of 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Cheshire last October.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Nigel Farage should be sensing an opportunity, according to James Heale
PAHe was led to court in handcuffs after spending time in HMP Altcourse in Liverpool.
The 55-year-old MP for Runcorn and Helsby has been sitting as an independent since being suspended from Labour following his arrest.
An application for bail pending appeal was initially refused by District Judge Tanveer Ikram, who had described an immediate custodial sentence as "necessary as a punishment and a deterrent".
The incident occurred in the early hours of October 26 in Frodsham, Cheshire, after Amesbury had been drinking.
MIke Amesbury spoke on GB News
GB NEWS
CCTV footage showed Amesbury punching Fellows to the head, knocking him to the ground, then following him onto the road and punching him at least five more times.
The court heard Amesbury said "You won't threaten your MP again will you?" during the assault.
Fellows had approached Amesbury at a taxi rank to complain about a bridge closure in the town.
The victim reported a head injury, headache and a superficial graze to his elbow.
Amesbury initially claimed he had acted in self-defence, suggesting he felt "threatened" and "intimidated".
Reform figures believe they can win in Amesbury's constituency despite it being "a top 20 seat where Labour won with an absolute majority", according to Heale.
The party finished second in the seat at last summer's election with 18 per cent of the vote, while Labour secured 52 per cent and the Conservatives 16 per cent.
"Now it's time for Reform to deliver on the ground game," Heale told GB News.
A recall petition could be triggered if 10 per cent of registered voters in Runcorn and Helsby sign it, which would force a by-election.
Any by-election could prove challenging for Labour given their "recent slump in the national polls".
