Reform UK set to smash through Labour heartlands as Starmer’s honeymoon period ends early with lead cut to 4%

The latest BMG opinion poll put Labour’s support at just 30 per cent, down from 34 per cent on July 4.

The leaderless Tories would regain a number of seats from Labour and the Liberal Democrats after witnessing a two-point boost to take them to 26 per cent.

Reform UK’s seat gains would be admittedly modest but the figure conceals the danger Farage poses to Starmer in the so-called Red Wall.

The survey, which put Reform UK on 19 per cent, would likely result in the populist party snatching Amber Valley, Dudley, Llanelli, Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr and Sittingbourne & Sheppey.

Labour would lose a total of 63 seats, with Election Polling’s swingometer suggesting the Tories would snatch 55.

Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats, who were polling at 11 per cent, would also lose four seats as the Tories win back a handful of Blue Wall seats.

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The Green Party would struggle to increase its Commons contingent in such a scenario but the SNP would likely make one gain.

Pro-Palestine candidates would also witness a six member boost, taking the overall haul to 11.

Despite only picking up an extra three seats in this projection, Reform UK finished second in 98 seats on July 4.

Labour held 89 of the 98 seats where the populist party ended up in the runner-up spot.

Such a result would likely leave Chatham & Aylesford, Cannock Chase, Warwickshire North & Bedworth and Folkestone & Hythe on a knife-edge.

Reform UK would likely benefit from having a ground campaign prepared to pound the pavement and relentlessly knock on doors ahead of the next general election.

Chairman Zia Yusuf last week confirmed the rebranded Brexit Party will establish 120 “pilot” local organisations as part of his plan to revamp Reform.

And Reform UK is only being halted from a tidal wave in Brexit-backing Labour seats by the Tory vote holding up.

While Conservative MPs expect the next leader to provide the party with a much needed poll boost, honeymoon periods appear to be becoming more and more precarious in British politics.

Starmer’s support has plummeted in recent weeks amid concern about the doom-and-gloom picture emerging from No10.

A number of seats could also see a pensioner push back against Labour over Starmer’s decision to means-test Winter Fuel Payments.

Suffolk Coastal, where 30 per cent of constituents are aged over 65, voted for Labour by less than 1,000 votes on July 4.

Reform UK will hope to keep its powder dry ahead of its conference later this month.

GB News last week revealed that the populist party raked in 30 per cent more in small donations following Sir John Hall’s decision to rejoin the Tories to back ex-Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick.

It remains to be seen if Reform UK can keep up the momentum following the creation of grassroots organisations to propel Farage’s People’s Army forward to 2029.