'They will be gnashing their teeth': Reform UK poised to cause 'huge upset' in key battleground ahead of 2029

Voting intentions for Labour have crashed from 30 to 23 per cent in recent polls amid Starmer's chaotic premiership and the Conservatives are also faring badly.

This has opened up the centre ground for Reform: pollsters are projecting that Nigel Farage's party could unexpectedly secure over ten seats in the Scottish Parliament when voters head to the polls in 2026.

These favourable odds are not lost on Reform's internal strategists, with one telling GB News: "In Scotland, the papers seem to suggest that we are in a position possibly to cause a huge upset - a breakthrough in a way that nobody would ever consider possible.

"The Scots must be gnashing their teeth in a horrible fashion."

History shows he has a point. Before the rebrand, Nigel Farage's party's focus was primarily on Brexit, which did not resonate as strongly in Scotland due to its significant pro-Remain sentiment during the referendum.

However, recent by-elections and polling data indicate that Reform's messaging is resonating with voters north of the border, suggesting that issues such as immigration, which the party is strong on, are high on the agenda.

Recent polling also suggests Reform could become the largest party in Wales, indicating a significant shift in voter preferences.

A poll by Opinium suggested that 26 per cent of Welsh voters would support Reform compared to 24 per cent for Labour should a General Election be held tomorrow.

"I see no good reason, unless we do something really stupid, why we shouldn't be the largest party in Wales," the Reform insider tells GB News.

Elections guru Professor Sir John Curtice previously told GB News that he believes Reform could potentially form a "blocking minority" in the Holyrood and the Senedd in the 2026 parliamentary elections.

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In Scotland, this fragmentation could make it challenging for any clear coalition to form, either among pro-independence parties like the SNP and Greens, or among unionist parties such as Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats.

The Senedd will also move to a system with more members and a more proportional representation from 2026.

This system can be advantageous for smaller parties like Reform UK, allowing them to gain representation disproportionate to their overall vote share if they manage to secure enough votes in the right regions or constituencies.