Reform UK has been dealt three reality checks as the results of May 1's local elections pour in.
Nigel Farage's party is emerging as the clear winner, pipping Labour to the post at the Runcorn and Helsby by-election and Tory defector Dame Andrea Jenkyns winning the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty.
The buzz is intoxicating, but Reform faces formidable challenges as it attempts to become a party of government, explains elections guru John Curtice.
The most "crucial" point to understand is that "who wins in terms of votes and who gains in terms of seats is not necessarily the same thing", he tells GB News.
Reform hit with three massive plot twists from Britain's top elections guru after Runcorn by-election win
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This has been a sore point for Reform since the last General Election.
Thanks to the quirks of Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system, Reform won only five MPs despite coming second to Labour in 98 constituencies, as the party's vote share was spread thinly across many constituencies as opposed to being concentrated.
It's also worth acknowledging that a strong showing at the local elections is not necessarily a proxy for electoral success, Curtice notes.
This election is being talked up because of Reform's rapid rise, but local elections have historically had a low turnout, he points out.
"I think the buzz stretches to about half a square metre beyond SW1," he told GB News.
However, the elections guru points out that a third party can still upset the apple cart - especially one that's neck and neck in the polls with Conservatives and Labour.
When the vote share is evenly split in this way, tiny differences can produce dramatic effects, Curtice explains.
The third humbling factor is that we may be experiencing "peak Reform", the elections guru says.
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A strong showing at the local elections is not necessarily a proxy for electoral success, John Curtice notes
PACurtice explained: "Reform is appealing to voters who believe in Brexit, are concerned about immigration, and tend to be on the conservative side of the culture wars arguments."
In other words, older male voters who are less educated, he says, adding that there's a limit to how much Reform can tap this base.
Furthermore, Labour barely increased its support in the Red Wall at the last General Election - and those voters who ditched the party in 2019 have not returned, Curtice points out.
"At the present moment, there are no big winners. We're talking about a deeply fragmented politics," he added.
