Inside Reform UK's 'kingmaker' plot to thwart SNP as Farage startles MSPs ahead of crunch vote

The biggest winner, Sir John Curtice reveals, is Reform UK.

In August, just seven per cent of Labour voters were switching to Reform, but that figure has doubled to 14 per cent as Starmer’s unpopular leadership continues to drain Labour government’s support in Wales and Scotland.

Where Reform was once reliant on winning disillusioned Conservative voters, it is now primarily benefitting from Labour, opening up the possibility of it becoming a key player in the Scottish parliament.

According to Professor Curtice, Nigel Farage’s party could win as many as a dozen seats if the Scottish elections were held tomorrow.

Crucially, this would mean neither the unionist or independence parties could form a majority government and may have to reach out to Reform to form a government.

Such a move would severely harm the SNP’s ambition for a second referendum on Scottish independence.

These calculations may seem unimportant as Scottish Elections aren’t due until May 2026 by which time things will have changed, but there is a crucial vote coming up which, if the government loses, could force an early election.

The Scottish Government are set to vote on the budget introduced by SNP leader John Swinney next month.

But as the SNP only has a minority government- 62 seats of 129- meaning they rely on support from other parties to pass legislation.

These supporting members, some of which are Labour, will be wary of voting down such an important piece of legislation in case it precipitates an election and they have to face a Reform candidate at the polls.

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This is surprising news in a country that backed remain and in recent history has recorded pro-immigration sentiment in attitude polls.

But, as is being shown in council elections across Britain, Reform is surging in popularity with national polls showing them at 20 per cent.

Even if the populist party only manages half of this in Scotland, it will still become a player everyone must take note of.

The Scottish Parliament is currently made up of 62 SNP members, 31 Conservatives, 22 Labour, seven Greens and four Liberal Democrats.

It is yet to have it first Reform UK member.