‘Wow!’ Poll-tracker reveals staggering details about Reform's meteoric rise – and spells catastrophe for Starmer

It shows that in January 2023, Reform UK was less popular than the Green Party, polling less than five per cent on average.

Two years later, Nigel’s party is polling 24 per cent on average, six times higher than its previous score and more or less neck and neck with the established political heavyweights Labour and the Conservatives.

It is a rise those in the Liberal Democrat party will look on with envy. Ed Davey’s party have been hovering around 10 per cent for the last two years, enjoying a very small rise in Autumn 2024.

But in January 2024, the party had to watch Reform sail past them, doubling their poll score and doing what the Lib Dems have been trying to achieve for years in a matter of months.

For Labour, the poll aggregating graph charts the complete opposite. Starmer’s party polled an enormous 48 per cent on average in January 2023.

That figure now stands at 26 per cent on average, almost halving in 24 months.

For the Conservatives, the graph doesn’t make for encouraging reading either. Unpopular after 14 years in power, the party was polling an average of 29 per cent in January 2023.

Since then, Sunak lost an election and Kemi Badenoch took the reins, promising to rebuild her party after an electoral drubbing.

While the party enjoyed a mediocre bump in fortunes in November/December 2024, Badenoch appears unable to shift the needle.

Her party it is now polling on average worse than when under Rishi Sunak. Its current average poll score of 23 per cent puts it practically level with Reform who appear to have capitalised on the leaderless Conservatives.

The trend for the Conservatives is still up, however, even if only just. Reform and Labour look to be mirroring each other with their trajectories, as seen in the graph below.

Pollsters asking how someone would vote in an election tomorrow is one way of tracking a political party’s momentum.

Party membership is another, and the latest data on reveals there is one party surging head of the rest, Reform UK.

Farage’s party recently hit 144,000 members, (up 260 per cent) eclipsing the Conservatives in the process.

Since 2022, Labour has lost 37,005 members, the Conservatives 40,757 and the Liberal Democrats 10,894 according to the Electoral Commission and Official Party figures.

But perhaps more important than polling or party membership is electoral results.

There have been 180 council by elections since the July General Election, and once again Labour performs poorly in this metric.

Starmer’s party have suffered a net loss of 28 councillors while the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 24.

For all its dominant polling and party membership figures, Reform UK has only won seven seats (up from zero).

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This is one less than the Green Party’s eight seats and is certainly an area Reform will be looking to improve upon.

It comes after several high-profile figures have called for a Reform/Tory alliance to defeat Labour.

The two right wing parties are consistently polling in the mid-twenties nationally, with Labour averaging about 25 per cent.

It means that if the two right wing parties merged, they would enjoy twice the support Labour currently has.

Suella Braverman, former Home Secretary, and Lord Frost, former Brexit negotiator, have both floated the idea.

However, Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf and Leader Nigel Farage have both attacked the Tories viciously, stating they ‘betrayed the country.’

Kemi Badenoch has also clashed with Reform publicly, challenging their infamous ‘membership counter’ and stating Reform was not the answer to Britain’s problems.

An alliance remains unlikely but currently there is no denying right wing support is being split by Reform and Conservative candidates standing against each other.