Reform UK is the most popular party in British politics for the first time, according to the Electoral Calculus monthly poll-of-polls.
The results mark a major boost for Nigel Farage’s party as a poll-of-polls is usually more accurate than any single poll, having taken an average over surveys from different pollsters.
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Last month, Reform overtook the Conservatives for the first time to be in second place behind Labour. And this month is now in the top spot, having been voted one per cent more popular than Labour, and four per cent more popular than the Conservatives.
By translating these poll figures into a parliamentary seat projection, it is possible to determine how many seats each party would win if there were an imminent general election. On our figures, Reform would come top with 192 seats, 14 seats more than Labour on 178 seats. The Conservatives would be in third place with 142 seats, and the Liberal Democrats in fourth place on 66 seats.
A parliamentary seat projection shows Reform would come out on top with 192 seats
PA
Keir Starmer's Labour party would come in second place, falling just 14 seats short of beating Reform
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Any party needs 326 seats in the House of Commons for an overall majority, so under that projection, no party would be able to form a Government on its own. Parliament would be hung, and parties would have to make a coalition deal or arrangement to share power. The three big parties are fairly evenly balanced, so lots of combinations are theoretically possible.
But the most likely outcome is for Reform and the Conservatives to strike a deal so that Nigel Farage would be Prime Minister, as leader of the largest party, and Kemi Badenoch would be deputy PM.
Such a situation would be a political thunderclap. Nigel Farage would be the first PM from outside the Labour and Conservative parties in over a century. And it would mark humiliation for the Tories to be reduced to a minor coalition partner after their recent fourteen years in office.
However, other outcomes are not out of the realm of possibility. A Reform-Labour coalition is numerically possible, but a bit unlikely politically. And an anti-Reform alliance between Labour and the Conservatives would be six seats short of an overall majority.
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Seat projection map shows Reform UK making major gains but failing to establish a majority
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It's worth remembering that there isn't going to be a general election tomorrow. Labour have a massive Commons majority and is in no danger of losing crucial votes in Parliament. Sir Keir Starmer is very unlikely to call a fresh election any time soon. As long as Labour stay united, they cannot be dislodged for the moment.
Reform UK are riding high now for three reasons: the Conservatives are still unpopular after their long term in office; Labour under Starmer has demonstrated a remarkable ability to lose support; and the public is looking for a new alternative to both major parties. The winds of change blowing in from the US are probably also helping Farage and Reform to some extent as well.
But these advantages may fade over time. The Conservatives might start to recover, Labour might get their governing act together, and the bounce from Trump may wane. Reform needs to capitalise on their polling popularity by winning some actual seats and councils in the local elections due in May. They also need to keep up their energy and momentum in what could be a long four-and-a-half-year wait until the next general election.
Nigel Farage has doubled Reform's vote share from 13 per cent last year to 26 per cent now. That's an impressive achievement, but it will only translate into political power if Reform can maintain that performance in the long campaign to come.
