MAPPED: The 114 seats flipping to Reform as latest poll gives Farage THREE-point buffer over struggling Starmer – is yours one?
Richard Tice looks ahead to an exciting year for Reform UK
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Reform UK has been projected to win 114 seats across Britain in a move that would decimate Labour’s majority, a sophisticated poll mapping model has revealed.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling, weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, and then generates an electoral map of Britain, shows Labour losing 163 seats and with it their majority.
Starmer’s party would all but be wiped out in Scotland where the SNP are projected to gain 33 seats leaving Labour with just seven.
Reform meanwhile would enjoy sweeping gains in the southeast around Kent and Essex, in the midlands around Stoke and the northwest around Sunderland.
The disruptor party would even take four seats in London, typically a bastion of metropolitan elite Labour loving lefties.
Across swathes of the midlands, south Wales and northeast Reform is polling a close second by Labour too, with the direction of popularity only travelling one way.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives would see a moderate boost of 16 seats, while the Liberal Democrats would lose one.
EXPLORE: Projected Reform gains
EXPLORE: Projected Reform gains
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Current UK electoral map
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With Labour being left 71 short of a majority, it would be up to Starmer’s party to form a coalition with the SNP and Liberal Democrats to govern.
Unless of course Reform and the Conservatives somehow form a coalition, though that is highly unlikely as the two parties have attacked each other vehemently in r=the battle for the right.
But perhaps more important than polling or party membership is electoral results.
There have been 180 council by elections since the July General Election, and once again Labour performs poorly in this metric.
Starmer’s party have suffered a net loss of 28 councillors while the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 24.
For all its dominant polling and party membership figures, Reform UK has only won seven seats (up from zero).
This is one less than the Green Party’s eight seats and is certainly an area Reform will be looking to improve upon.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
A screengrab of Reform UK's membership tallyREFORM UK It comes after several high-profile figures have called for a Reform/Tory alliance to defeat Labour.
The two right wing parties are consistently polling in the mid-twenties nationally, with Labour averaging about 25 per cent.
It means that if the two right wing parties merged, they would enjoy twice the support Labour currently has.
A Reform UK spokesman said: “This research tells us what we all know, Reform UK has all the momentum in British politics.
"We are surging in the polls and our membership is growing daily. Thanks to this surge in membership, we have more activists than ever before ready to campaign for the May elections.
"We are reconstituting the centre-right of British politics, the Tory brand is broken, and Reform is now the real opposition."
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