Reform UK is making unprecedented gains in the nation’s left-leaning capital, latest polling has shown.
Farage’s ‘disruptor’ party would win 12 seats in London if an election was held tomorrow, many in traditionally red areas of east London like Barking where Labour’s Nesil Caliskan won a 11,054-vote majority in July 2024.
While Labour would be the biggest losers with seven seats lost to Reform, the Conservatives aren’t safe either.
Badenoch’s party would lose five MPs in the capital to Reform, including Gareth Bacon whose 5,118-vote majority in Orpington would be wiped out.
The map was extrapolated from pollsters FindOutNowwhose most recent research put Farage’s party at 29 per cent nationally, six-points ahead of second placed Labour.
The Tories polled 21 per cent of the vote, eight behind Reform, confirming Badenoch is losing the battle for the right in British politics.
It comes as Reform UK continues to record impressive polling results. A scan of recent national pollsters put the party at:
Techne UK: Reform one point lead
MoreInCommon: Reform one point lead
YouGov: Reform two point lead
FindOutNow: Reform six point lead
Opinium: Labour one point lead
Survation: Labour three point lead
The Nowcast model, which aggregates all these recent national polls and weights them for historic accuracy and recency, projects Labour to lose 182 seats nationwide if an election was held tomorrow.
That would see the party’s total seats reduced to 229, well below the magic 325 needed for a majority in Westminster.
The losses would mostly be inflicted by Reform whose 153-seat projection would mean a gain of 148 seats.
The SNP’s gain of 33 seats in Scotland would also be eating into Labour. The model shows the Conservatives losing five seats.
Nowcast model projection
ElectionMapsUK
It comes as Reform UK surpasses Britain’s political parties in average polling for the first time, seen as a major milestone by many polling experts.
Farage’s party is now recording an average polling score of 25.6 per cent (+10.9 since the GE), marginally higher than Labour 25.5 per cent (-9.1) and the Tories 22.2 per cent (-2.1).
Average polling of the main parties since July 2024
ElectionMapsUK
However, despite strong polling Reform is struggling to record electoral victories. The party has won just 11 of 198 seats since the General Election.
Labour has won 72 (a net loss of 33 seats) while the Conservatives have won 53 (a net gain of 24 seats). The Lib Dems have taken 37 victories (a net loss of one).
Election results seem to not have had an effect on bookmakers odds, however, as the scramble slash odds on Reform gaining the most seats at the next election and Nigel Farage becoming the next Prime Minister continues.
Oddschecker, Britain’s largest odds aggregating website, shows bookmakers are overwhelmingly backing Farage to be the next PM, as are gamblers.
The Brexit supremo has odds of 3/1 for being the next occupant in Number 10, an implied probability of 25 per cent. It means if you put £5 on this outcome and won, you would only win £20.
A whopping 72 per cent of bets in the ‘next PM’ category have been on Farage, far more than second placed Kemi Badenoch who secured 8.3 per cent of bets.
In terms of which party will win the most seats at the next election, Reform has surged ahead of the Tories with odds of 9/4, meaning if you put £5 you would only win £16.25.
Over 50 per cent of bets on this question have been placed on Reform compared to 20 per cent on Labour, according to Oddschecker.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
Starmer's popularity in 'freefall' as polling shows Labour at record lowPAA Reform UK spokesman said: "It’s no surprise we’re polling six points ahead of the Tories.
“The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives. Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions.
"Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms.
“Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 185,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change.
“Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them."
Local elections are due in May, though nine authorities have postponed them as Labour looks to reorganise local government.
The next General Election is due in 2029.
Projected Reform gains in London
Barking
Bexleyheath and Crayford
Bromley and Biggin Hill
Croydon East
Dagenham and Rainham
Eltham and Chislehurst
Feltham and Heston
Hornchurch and Upminster
Old Bexley and Sidcup
Orpington
Romford
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
