Reform UK scored a huge electoral win deep in Labour’s strongest heartland in the UK last night.
Voters in the Trevethin & Penygarn council ward in Torfaen, South Wales, abandoned the habit of several lifetimes by ditching Labour for Nigel Farage’s party in an unprecedented swing.
Farage’s party scooped 47 per cent of the vote, but more impressive than that was the size of the collapse in socialist support.
Labour mustered just 26 per cent of the vote as their support crumbled by whopping 49.2 per cent.
The result is all the more eye-opening when considering the voting habits of Torfaen residents. The last time Trevethin & Penygarn voted, Labour was returned with 76 per cent of the vote.
In the wider Westminster constituency, Torfaen has voted red since it was formed in 1983, most recently returning Nick Thomas-Symonds with a 7,322-vote majority.
The South Wales Valleys, along with Wales as a whole, has voted in a Labour majority for last 28 consecutive General Elections, an extraordinary period of dominance stretching back to 1910.
The Senedd, Wales’ devolved parliament, has been ruled by Labour since its formation in 1999.
Even in the Tory landslides in the 1950's Wales voted LabourGBNBut as this result shows, Reform appears to be shattering the status quo in Labour’s safest of strongholds.
Council by-elections are often highly localised affairs and there is a danger of reading too much into them. But this result is different as Wales is the next country in the UK to have national elections in just 15 months time.
As a marker of opinion for incumbent Welsh Labour, this result is a major warning that unless the party can turn around Wales' fortunes the Welsh public are willing to back an Englishman and his limited company over the traditional red rosette.
Commentators point to the dire state of Wales' NHS, arguably worse than England, particularly when it comes to waiting times.
According to latest PISA rankings, Welsh children's educational outcomes are now the worst in Britain after the devolved government chose to scrap educational targets.
There has also been widespread dismay with Labour's focus on net zero, 20mph speed limits, expanding the Senedd and various woke initiatives that Welsh voters feel are not in their interest.
Labour has also lost the excuse of blaming Westminster for a lack of funding since Starmer rose to power. Indeed, the Labour leader's unpopularity is tainting Welsh Labour, all to the benefit of Reform, as polls have confirmed.
Electoral Calculus mega poll of the UK put Reform, Labour and the Tories neck and neck on 140 seats each.
Perhaps even more eye-opening was the total collapse in support for Labour in Wales, with Reform projected to take 23 of Wales' 32 seats.
The research left Labour with just five seats, the four Cardiff patches and Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney.
Projected electoral map of Wales
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Current Electoral Map of Wales
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Starmer’s party also lost the Warwick All Saints and Woodloes by election (Warwick) last night, with their vote share dropping 24.7 per cent.
The Greens and Reform were both up 21 per cent, but it was the environmental party that ended up taking the ward.
Starmer’s party did manage to defend the Burnt Oak ward in northwest London where a drop of 18.2 per cent in vote share was still enough to win. Reform came third.
Labour also won the Kirkintilloch East & North & Twechar ward in East Dunbartonshire in a three horse race with the Lib Dems and SNP.
In the Manor ward of Stevenage, the Liberal Democrats defended their safe majority with ease, though Reform pushed Labour and the Tories into third and fourth.
One other election happened in Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East ward in the New Forest that is yet to declare.
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On Tuesday, the two establishment parties were battered in an election in the Prendergast ward of Haverfordwest (Pembrokeshire), with Labour’s vote share dropping 32 per cent and the Tories’ 37 per cent as an independent triumphed.
The result means Labour has suffered a net loss of 32 councillors since the July General Election as voters desert Starmer for unpopular decisions on winter fuel, farm tax and Chagos.
The Conservatives are up 23 seats, while Reform are up 11, not counting defections. The Lib Dems have held steady on 35 seats (no gain or loss).
It comes after Reform was handed its largest lead in a national poll ever yesterday by pollsters FindOutNow.
The research put Reform on 29 per cent, six points ahead of Labour on 23 per cent and eight ahead of the Conservatives on 21 per cent.
FindOutNow has consistently given Reform a higher lead than any other polling company, however.
But two other pollsters, YouGov and MoreInCommon, have given Farage’s party a lead, but only of a point or two.
Electoral Calculus conducted a ‘mega poll’ this week which saw the Tories, Labour and Reform tie on about 145 seats each if a General Election was held tomorrow, suggesting Britain’s political landscape may well now be a three-party system.
