Reform UK would win the most seats but parliament would be hung between three parties if an election was held tomorrow, latest polling has shown.
Respected pollsters Electoral Calculus projected Nigel Farage’s party to scoop 25.8 per cent of the vote landing Reform 192 seats (up 187).
Projected Reform gains
Projected Reform gains
Projected Reform gains
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Labour’s 24.7 per cent of the vote share would only be enough for 178 seats, meaning a loss of 234 seats in a total bloodbath.
The Conservatives would win 142 seats, a rise of 21 what can only be described as a modest fightback.
Electoral Calculus seat projection, February 2025
Electoral Calculus
It means for Farage to become Prime Minister Reform would have to form a coalition government with the Conservatives.
That would give the right-wing alliance 334 seats which is eight seats over the magic 326 required to rule with a majority, albeit a slim one.
However, a deal between Reform and the Tories is highly unlikely after both parties have publicly gone on record to attack each other.
Indeed, Farage has made it his aim to consign the Conservatives to the history books, making clear his belief Reform is now the official opposition in the UK.
Electoral outcomes possible election outcomes based on current polling
Electoral Calculus
It is a major blow to the left as even if Labour, the Liberal Democrats (down six) and the SNP (up 34) formed a coalition, they would only have 287 seats, 47 less than the right-wing coalition.
Electoral Calculus research underlines the incredible ability of Reform UK to take seats from safe Tory heartlands and Labour bastions.
West Lancashire, for example, is projected to flip to Reform, despite the fact it has voted red since 1993, and current Labour MP Ashley Dalton won a huge 13,625 majority in July 2024.
Another Labour safe seat heading Reform’s way is Cramlington and Killingworth north of Newcastle which, barring 2019, has been red since 1950.
Labour’s Emma Foody won here by 12,820 votes, but again Farage’s anti-immigration party is tipped to snatch the seat.
At the other end of the spectrum, Reform is also hurting Tory heartlands. Veteran Tory John Hayes’ seat of South Holland and The Deepings, which has never not voted Conservative, is leaning turquoise.
Melton and Syston, blue since its inception in 1997 and held by Conservative stalwart Ed Argar, is also tipped to fall to Farage as Reform redefines political lines.
Reform UK won a huge election victory in Truss’s old seat on Friday
Getty
Reform’s dual threat to the left and right has begun to manifest itself in elections since the General Election.
Voters in the Trevethin & Penygarn council ward in Torfaen, South Wales, abandoned the habit of several lifetimes by ditching Labour for Nigel Farage’s party in an unprecedented swing two weeks ago.
Farage’s party scooped 47 per cent of the vote, but more impressive than that was the size of the collapse in socialist support.
Labour mustered just 26 per cent of the vote as their support crumbled by whopping 49.2 per cent.
And Farage has dented Conservative councillors’ hopes in the safest of Tory areas too.
Yesterday, Reform snatched the Bedingfield seat (Breckland) off the Tories, romping to victory with 54.3 per cent of the vote, well out ahead of unseated Conservatives on 27.4 per cent.
This was despite the seat’s location in the heart of the South West Norfolk constituency which had elected a Conservative MP at every election since 1964 (including Liz Truss since 2010).
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Nigel Farage's party is soaring ahead of the Conservatives GETTY Speaking exclusively to GB News, CEO of Electoral Calculous Martin Baxter said: “Reform UK have gained steadily in opinion polls month by month as the public loses faith in the two traditional parties.”
Baxter explained: “With a political thunderbolt, Reform UK are now the most popular party in British politics, and Nigel Farage would be on course to be the next Prime Minister, if there were an election tomorrow.”
“This is a pivotal moment, with giant cracks showing in the existing two-party system.
“Whether Reform can keep up their momentum and displace one of the other big parties in the longer term remains to be seen.”
Responding to the poll, a Reform UK spokesman said: “This polling confirms what we all know, Reform has all the momentum in British politics.
“The British people are ready for real change after decades of deception and failure by the Tories and Labour.
“This is only just the start, we intend to win the next general election.”
