Commentators are asking whether Reform UK is underperforming electorally after the party lost yet more elections this week.
Nigel Farage’s ‘disruptor party’ has been recording dominant polling with at least four pollsters giving them a national lead, but critics point to the party only winning 12 of 212 council by-elections since the General Election, a measly five per cent.
It comes after Reform lost nine by-elections last week, six of them in second place, two in third and one fifth.
Voters in the ward of Vivary Bridge (Pendle, Lancashire) handed the Liberal Democrats 34.9% (+3.5) of the vote, narrowly edging out Reform on 32.2% (New).
Similarly close results occurred in Herne & Broomfield (Canterbury) where the Tories won 40.7% (+1.0), edging out Reform on 34.6% (New), and Brentford East (Hounslow) where Labour scooped 48.1% (-14.7), ahead of Reform on 22.0% (New).
It means Reform UK is languishing in fourth place electorally since the July General Election.
Despite suffering a net loss of 35 councillors, Labour is out front with 74 wins, followed by the Tories on 57 (up 22) and the Lib Dems third with 41 (no change).
Farage’s army, despite dominating headlines, has only won 12 contests (up 12), marginally ahead of the Greens on ten (up 2) and the SNP on 7 (no change) who only stand in one country.
Council By-election Wins Since July 2024
GBN
The results have drawn the attention of polling and election guru Ben Walker who explored the discrepancy between polling and results.
Writing on Substack, Walker said: “Taken in aggregate, Reform’s showing thus far hasn’t been a David Steel-style “go back to your constituencies and prepare for government” routine, has it?”
Walker’s analysis of electoral results and national polling did indeed find Farage’s party to be underperforming ‘by 5pts on average’ while Labour were underperforming by 6 pts.
Why? Walker suggested it was all to do with the motivation of Reform and Labour voters to turn out.
“Are supporters of the government and supporters of Nigel Farage’s “People’s Army” less likely to come out in council by-election contests than they are era-defining General Elections?” asked the expert.
“I recall a conversation some time ago with a former Labour strategist who went to great pains to remind me Labour voters like to stay at home unless it’s the “big one”.
“Low attention voters, waiting to be psyched up to make a splash - that was the median Labour voter once upon a time. And that doesn’t sound too far off a caricature of a Reform voter, too.”
On the other end of the spectrum, Walker’s analysis showed one big winner in elections since July 2024, the Lib Dems.
He explained: “The biggest overperformer? The Lib Dems. The General Election model suggests they’d have averaged just 9 per cent in these wards.
“But in council by-elections they’re averaging 20 per cent - an overperformance of 11pts.”
Britain Elects analysis of elections and polling since July 2024
Britain Elects
Questioning of Reform’s electoral effectiveness comes after the party suffered its first major bout of infighting as Rupert Lowe and Nigel Farage locked horns.
Lowe, who had sat in the European Parliament under Farage in the Brexit Party, said it is "too early to know" whether Nigel Farage will be a good Prime Minister in a series of unprecedented remarks about his own party leader.
And in a further shot at his leader, he warned: "I'm not going to be by Nigel's side at the next election unless we have a proper plan to change the way we govern from top to bottom.
"We can't raise the hopes of people who are so frustrated with the way we are governed and then flunk it."
He continued: "We have to change from being a protest party led by the Messiah into being a properly structured party with a frontbench, which we don't have.
“We have to change from being a protest party led by the Messiah into being a properly structured party with a frontbench,' Lowe vowed.
"We have to start behaving as if we are leading - and not merely protesting.
"Nigel is a messianic figure who is at the core of everything but he has to learn to delegate, as not everything can go through one person.
"We have to start developing policy which is going to change the way we govern.
"Will those messianic qualities distil into sage leadership? I don't know," he jabbed.
The outspoken MP also hinted that he could stake claim to a future leadership position.
"I am a bit like the one-eyed man in the land of the blind," he said. "But, funnily enough, the one-eyed man is usually in charge in the end in the land of the blind."
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
Reform UK's Rupert Lowe has said it is 'too early to know' whether Nigel Farage will be a good Prime MinisterPAHitting back at the remarks, Farage told TalkTV that Lowe's comments were "completely wrong" and denied Reform UK is a "protest party".
He said: "We are not a protest party in any way at all. That is utterly wrong, utterly, completely wrong."
When asked why Lowe made the remarks publicly, Farage joked: "Perhaps he wants to be Prime Minister. Most people in politics do."
On Friday, Rupert Lowe was accused of "serious bullying" and making "two threats of physical violence" as Reform UK's recent row explodes.
In a statement, Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf and chief whip Lee Anderson said: "It is with regret that we feel obligated to disclose that the party received complaints from two female employees about serious bullying in the offices of the Member of Parliament for Great Yarmouth, Rupert Lowe. One worked in his Parliamentary office, the other in his Constituency office, we understand complaints have been made to Parliamentary authorities.
"Evidence was provided to us of workplace bullying, the targeting of female staff who raised concerns, and evidence of derogatory and discriminatory remarks made about women, including reference to a perceived disability.
"We feel we have a duty of care to all our staff, whether employed directly or indirectly. Accordingly, we appointed an independent King's Counsel to conduct an investigation into the veracity of these complaints. To date, Mr Lowe has yet to cooperate with this investigation.
"In addition to these allegations of a disturbing pattern of behaviour, Mr Lowe has on at least two occasions made threats of physical violence against our Party Chairman. Accordingly, this matter is with the Police.
"Reform stands for the highest standards of conduct in public life, and we will apply these standards without fear nor favour, including within our own party."
Reform has suspended the whip from Rupert Lowe who is threatening to sue the party.
While Reform’s infighting and the crisis surrounding Lowe won’t help them win elections, there are other simpler answers as to the discrepancy between council elections and national polling, as Walker explained.
“Council by-election votes are not General Election votes. The Lib Dems were still scoring council seat gains in the dark days of coalition government in 2014. They tell you something. But not everything.”
Secondly, Walker said: “Hundreds of council by-elections does not make a representative sample. They have been varied in geography, density, and all other strata that would make for a wide sample, sure. But they are still not fully representative.”
Reform UK has been approached for comment.
