MAPPED: Labour tipped for electoral wipeout as Reform UK gain 142 seats – is yours turning turquoise?

Labour won 37 of 57 Scottish seats in July 2024, inflicting heavy losses on the scandal-stricken SNP.

But in what would be a complete reversal the party is now set to lose 34 of those seats- 92 per cent of its representation north of the border- all to a rampant SNP.

Labour’s losses across the country mostly come at the expense of a resurgent Reform UK party, the model shows.

Nigel Farage’s party is set to gain 142 seats, bringing their total tally to 147 seats. That would mean leapfrogging the Conservatives into second and Nigel Farage becoming the official Leader of the Opposition.

With the Conservatives set to gain just 13 seats (bringing their total to 134 seats), a right-wing coalition with Reform would only muster 281 seats, not enough for a majority.

If this poll mapping played out, a more likely scenario is Labour forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats who would retain their 72 seats and the SNP (45 seats).

A Lab/Lib/SNP coalition could muster 330 seats, meaning a razor thin majority of five seats.

Reform’s gains are focused in the East of England in Essex and Kent, in Lincolnshire, the Midlands and the North West of England.

Reform is even projected to take four seats in the nation’s capital, traditionally a bastion of Labour support.

Bexleyheath and Crayford, Dagenham and Rainham, Romford and Hornchurch and Upminster are all projected to go to Reform.

Even Labour’s safest of safe heartlands in Wales, where they have won a Westminster majority for the last 114 years, is not safe from Reform.

The Nowcast Model shows Labour losing six of its 27 seats (22 per cent of its representation), with four seats going to Reform (Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, Llanelli, Neath and Swansea East and Rhondda and Ogmore).

Meanwhile, Mid and South Pembrokeshire and Clwyd North would be regained by the Tories who were totally wiped out in the Celtic nation in July 2024.

Many Labour and Tory big beasts are also tipped to lose their seats challengers, the model shows.

From the Labour Cabinet, projected losses include:

• Home Secretary Yvette Cooper (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley - Reform)
• Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband (Doncaster North – Reform)
• Defence Secretary John Healey (Rawmarsh and Conisbrough – Reform)
• Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy (Wigan – Reform)
• Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds (Stalybridge and Hyde – Reform)
• Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson (Houghton and Sunderland South – Reform)
• Health Secretary Wes Streeting (Ilford North – Independent)
• Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood (Birmingham Ladywood – Independent)

That makes up 35 per cent of Keir Starmer’s Cabinet.

The Conservatives are not safe from Reform either, the model revealed. Their losses included:

• Shadow Environment Secretary Victoria Atkins (Louth and Horncastle – Reform)
• Shadow Paymaster General Richard Holden (Basildon and Billericay – Reform)
• Former Home Secretary James Cleverly (Braintree – Reform)
• Shadow Minister for Defence Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford – Reform)

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It comes after Reform UK fired a warning shot to the major parties ahead of May’s local elections by standing more candidates than anyone else.

Despite having a fraction of their resources, the insurgent party is standing 1,630 candidates (99.3% of seats), 35 more than the Conservatives’ 1,595 candidates (97.2%) and 88 more than Labour’s 1,542 nominees (94.0%).

Farage’s party is projected to make sweeping gains at the expense of the Tories and Labour, something they have had mixed success doing in council by-elections since July 2024.

Since July 2024, Reform UK, for all their dominant polling and headlines, has only won 13 seats (up 13) inviting criticism that they shout the loudest but aren’t producing results.

The party has enjoyed a large vote share increase of 9.3 per cent, however, indicating multiple second and third places, pointless in First Past The Post, winner takes all contests.

By-elections have been bleak for Labour in that period. Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 40 seats since July, with the Tories up 24 seats.

A total of 1,641 councillors will be elected in May to 23 authorities including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough.

Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party compared to just one for Labour, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).

Of these seven, four are run by Conservative minority administrations, two by Liberal Democrats, and one by Independents.

Nine authorities have cancelled their elections ahead of a shakeup of local government.