If Popular Conservatism is anything to go by, Reform UK is here to stay - analysis by Jack Walters
If Popular Conservatism is anything to go by, Reform UK is here to stay
PA
“We had to move to a bigger room,” Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg claimed. “There are some Conservatives left.”
This would have made sense if the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster was heaving.
However, with less than half the room full, you’d be forgiven for feeling a sense of despair at the state of the Tory Party.
Rows of the auditorium were sectioned off, with remaining attendees sparsely spread out along long church-like benches.
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg speaks during the Popular Conservatism post-election event in central London
PA
Excluding ex-Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who was beamed in from Washington, not a single speaker currently sits in the House of Commons.
Rees-Mogg was ousted in North East Somerset & Hanham by 5,319 votes against his Labour predecessor Dan Norris.
And Lord Daniel Hannan joined Lord David Frost in delivering speeches as members of the unelected upper chamber.
As the raindrops smashed into the roof of the Emmanuel Centre, the tired messaging about a low tax economy continued to miss the beat.
It is far too early to diagnose why disengaged Tories turned to Reform UK.
Suella Braverman beamed in from Washington
PA
However, immigration is only one pillar of the populist party’s support.
A general sense of anger, frustration and resentment directed at the Tory Party fuels the rest.
Quoting Benjamin Disraeli and referencing the victories of Margaret Thatcher, might pander well to the wonk base.
But it fails to truly comprehend the scale of the mountainous climb facing the Conservative Party.
It also, for the most part, underestimates a general feeling of betrayal felt by 2019 Tory voters.
And this ensured that the prescription for how to quell the threat from Nigel Farage was far too simplistic.
MORE FROM MEMBERSHIP:
Nigel Farage made his first speech as an MP in the Commons today
Commons TV
Lord Frost claimed: “By 2027, we can, if we work hard, get a single party on the right again, with no competitor to its right. That is absolutely doable if we get serious now.”
Another top Tory told GB News that the Conservative Party simply needs to propose withdrawing from the ECHR.
However, given Farage’s rousing maiden speech in the House of Commons earlier today, it is safe to say that the Brexit stalwart is here to stay.
The Reform UK leader said: “We are the new kids on the block.”
Sitting at the back of the Emmanuel Centre, I couldn’t hope but recognise how far the Tory Party is from the momentum manifested by Reform UK.
Whether it is a 5,000 sell-out crowd at Birmingham’s NEC or hundreds gathered to listen to Farage in Clacton, there is a general sense of optimism and excitement about Reform UK’s future.
Despite only picking up five MPs, the populist party finished second in 98 seats.
The UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system, disadvantageous to a number of parties, ultimately hindered Reform’s crusade to repaint the country.
And one thing that probably wasn’t priced in by Popular Conservatives is that you cannot out-Farage, Farage himself.
Lord Frost speaks at PopCon
PA
Meanwhile, Popular Conservatism supporters were sporadically flooding out the hall as if it was a Met Office weather warning.
A speaker even managed to sneak out before the panel discussion, quickly jumping into an Uber as rain showered upon London.
With all of this in mind, it is fair to say that Farage’s People’s Army is on the march.
From Llanelli to Castle Point, Reform UK is breaking electoral trends and gunning for support in once-safe territory for both Labour and the Tories.
The next big test, excluding any potential by-elections, comes in Wales in 2026.
Finishing runner-up in 13 seats, the populist party is hoping to tap into collapsing support for Labour in Wales.
It will also continue to seek to reconfigure the 2019 pro-Brexit coalition that propelled Boris Johnson to No10 in 2019.
And Farage is clear: Reform UK will professionalise to take the fight to Labour and the Tories.
The Clacton MP claimed: “I made it clear that Ukip would be a non-racist, non-sectarian party, and in the end it was.
“I will jolly well make sure, starting today, that we do not want people with desperately unpleasant views. We will not tolerate people with these views. They will be gone.
“And we'll have the funding after this, we'll have the support coming in to be able to absolutely professionalise the party. This will never happen again.”
Lord Hannan of Kingsclere speaks at the event which covered an analysis of the election results, explanations of what happened, and ideas on what needs to happen next
PA
It is important to point out that Popular Conservatism isn’t the only horse in town.
One Nation Tories and New Conservatives will be among those chancing their arm to get a contender in as Leader of the Opposition.
And there weren’t exactly a large contingent of Conservative MPs in attendance.
Former Culture Secretary Sir John Whittingdale and ex-Chief Whip Wendy Morton only managed to get through three-quarters of the event before darting out the door.
If today was anything to go by then Braverman was absolutely right.
“There's space in British politics for only one conservative party and at the moment our place in that spectrum is under a serious threat,” the former Home Secretary said.
But the issue is, I don’t even know if the Tory Party is going to be the party that will survive the fallout.