Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with a 27 point lead in a devastating blow to the Conservatives.
The Clacton Constituency poll, conducted by JL Partners on behalf of Friderichs Advisory Partners, has Farage polling at 48 per cent while the Tory leader sits back at 21 per cent of the vote share.
Farage is leading in every age group apart from the 18 to 34-year-olds and only one in five 2019 Conservative voters are sticking to the party.
Labour is forecast to win 18 per cent of the vote, and the Green Party stands at 6 per cent.
Conservative Giles Watling has held the seat in Clacton since 2017
Getty
Speaking to GB News, JL Partners director Scarlett Maguire said: "I think Nigel Farage will win Clacton. We just did a poll in the constituency and that showed that Nigel Farage not just won but stormed home in Clacton on 48% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 21%.
“The most astonishing thing about that is that would be a 51% vote share reduction for the Conservative candidate on the last election.”
The seat on the Essex coast has been held by Conservative Giles Watling since 2017.
Watling secured 24,703 with 72 per cent of the vote share in 2019 when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the forefront of his campaign.
Previously to Watling, the seat was held by Douglas Carswell, who defected from the Tories to Ukip in 2014.
He was re-elected in a by-election in October 2014 before retaining the seat in the 2015 general election.
Farage said "many people are going to be surprised on July 4th"
PA
Carswell resigned from Ukip two years later and did not contest the seat in the 2017 election and it returned to the Conservatives.
This is Farage's seventh attempt to stand as an MP; the politician has lost in five elections and two by-elections.
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The poll mirrors a similar survey by the polling company Survation, which suggested that Farage would win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, also finds the Tories will win 27 per cent of the vote share while Labour are at 24 per cent.
Damian Lyons Lowe, the founder and chief executive of Survation said that swings as large as the one projected in Clacton are "extremely rare" and are "considerably larger than many significant historical swings."
Farage said about the poll: "This polling shows Reform will win seats at the election. I think many people are going to be surprised on July 4th. If you vote Reform, you get Reform."