Nigel Farage’s ‘rock-star’ rally shows tide turning to Reform but big Tory beast could derail populist ‘revolt’

Farage and his allies were met with an electric atmosphere as 4,500 people crammed into the NEC in Birmingham.

In a moment which felt similar to the heights of Jeremy Corbyn’s marmite tenure as Labour leader, Farage was welcomed with a wall of noise as he slammed the BBC, Channel 4 and the Conservative Party.

Farage said: “We are what people are talking about at the breakfast table, at work, at the pub, at the bingo hall - wherever people go, we are the story.

“Many millions already have said that they are absolutely going to vote for us.

“But there are many millions more who have simply not made up their minds and they could come to us over the course of the next four days.”

The Brexit supremo, who is hoping to end his electoral hoodoo in Clacton on July 4, was certainly able to show-off the momentum behind Reform UK.

Reform UK could snatch 18 seats on July 4, with Find Out Now putting the populist party’s support at 18 per cent.

The MRP poll would indicate a massive bounce compared to October 2022 when Reform UK was languishing in a distant sixth on as low as three per cent support.

Explaining the shift, Yusuf said: “In my 37-years, I’ve never seen anything like this in British politics. In that room, there was so much hope, so much electrifying, positive energy.

“It felt like this cathartic moment where so many people who have been demoralised for so long, including myself, showed people are now inspired again.

“Again it wasn’t just yesterday. This has been going on for weeks, if not months.”

He added: “Nigel Farage is clearly a generational political talent.

“He is by far the most inspiring political figure in Britain and is a contender to take that mantle globally.

“A big part of that is that Nigel speaks for so many people in this country who felt so let down.

“They now see a path for hope and speaking personally the reason why I made my donation and now speak publicly is because I see how much potential this country has.”

Even leading Tories have acknowledged Farage’s achievement at the NEC yesterday.

A former Downing Street insider said: “Rishi would do anything for a crowd like that. He’d be desperate just to have some people standing around holding placards.”

However, some Conservative figures hope the Farage factor will merely emulate the crowds Corbyn assembled in 2017 and 2019.

Ex-Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said: “These rallies can have an impact because of coverage, like it did with Corbyn in 2017.

“It gives a sense of momentum and it can look really impressive. But the reality is, it’s the converted preaching to the converted and it won’t necessarily get them any more votes. It could help win over some people but not many.

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“Having said that, I think Reform are going to have a big impact in the election. Even if they don’t win many seats, I think four is the most, they are going to eat into the Conservative vote and give Labour plenty of seats.

“There are 50 or 60 seats where just a few per cent could let Labour through. And in my old patch of Great Yarmouth or even with James Cleverly in Braintree, Reform could help Labour topple massive majorities.”

Opinion polls paint an uncertain picture for Reform UK, giving the populist party an average return of just four MPs.

However, with as many as seven-in-10 Reform voters backing the Tories in 2019, the split on the right threatens to wreak havoc across much of Brexit-backing England and Wales.

A senior Reform UK source said: “Sorry, one wonders are the Tories eating lotuses? Have they drunk themselves into some sort of blind oblivion? Have their canvassers not reported back in every constituency, from the north of Scotland to the south of Cornwall, what is happening? Yes, they have. It takes a level of stupid to be so blindly oblivious to the reality on the ground. It might explain why they’ve done such a s**t job for the last 14 years.”

Addressing the Corbyn comparison, the insider added: “Corbyn didn’t win anything because the Brexit Party stood candidates down against the Tories in 2019.”

“If you look at the 2019 European Elections and the 2016 Brexit referendum, Nigel is clearly the one politician who is able to touch the heart of the British public.”

Reform UK will also undoubtedly pounce on the first-past-the-post electoral system after July 4, highlighting how the proportion of votes is not reflected on the House of Commons’ green benches.

However, for many at least, July 4 is a springboard for Reform UK’s ambitions in 2029.

Farage said: “We are not pretending that we are going to win this general election, we are a very, very new political party.

“This is step one. Our real ambition is the 2029 general election. But this is our first big push."

Ex-Liberal Democrat MP Lembit Opik, who confirmed he is mulling over standing for Reform UK in 2029, told GB News: “The ceiling for Reform UK is No10 Downing Street in 2029. The best Reform can do is get there if they play their cards right and I’d actually say the worst they can do is become the Official Opposition.”

The former Montgomeryshire MP was in the 4,500-strong crowd at the NEC.

Explaining why he joined Reform UK supporters in Birmingham, Opik said: “I was one of the people who helped build the Liberal Democrats after being elected in 1997.

“At that time, they were optimistic, clear-minded, self-confident, everything Reform UK is now. Nick Clegg ruined the Liberal Democrats for a decade but Reform is filling the void.

“The same inspiration that drew me into politics back then is drawing me back now.

“Yesterday’s rally was twice as big as the biggest conference that the Liberal Democrats ever had. Anyone that thinks that this is some joke hasn’t been taking Reform seriously. They’re driven by people rather than personal ambition.”

Slamming the Tories, he added: “The Tories have to be realistic. They had their chance and they blew it. You can’t take anything the Conservatives say seriously.

“They betrayed their membership as much as the country. They want to believe Reform is a flash in the pan but they’re more like a flame-thrower in the Conservative camp.

“People need to start being honest. Reform can reach the parts that other parties cannot reach, including the Tories.”

But Yusuf’s criticism extended to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

The 37-year-old asked: “How many other political leaders in this country would have the courage to book the NEC with only three days' notice and charge £5 to fill it and then actually fill it?”

He added: “The most important thing is it demonstrates just how much energy and momentum there is behind the Reform movement. And the movement is broadening, more and more people from all backgrounds, young, old, from all races, are coming forward and saying they support Reform.”

With Farage pulling no punches about the existential threat facing the Tory Party, Conservative MPs will need to think long and hard about what direction they go in after July 4.

The immediate question facing the rump of remaining MPs will have to address which leadership contender is best-placed to take on the populists to the right.However, thinking about it for just a few minutes, it is not clear if anyone in the current crop of the Conservative Party could take on Farage.

The only Tory leader to see-off Farage, both in delivering the 2016 Brexit vote and 2019 landslide Conservative victory, was Boris Johnson.

A former No10 insider told GB News: “Boris is the only Tory who can get a rally like that.

“He’s fun, interesting, and very big-picture. It’s exciting and it’s chaotic but it’s just different. There’s no one else like that in the Tory Party.

“If Boris was still around, Farage wouldn’t be doing this and I’m sure he wouldn’t be getting these crowds.”

Johnson loyalists would, of course, throw their weight behind the ex-Prime Minister making a Churchill-style comeback.

But it has been during my visits to a number of Tory-held seats where the divisive Johnson is most on show.

Many voters, particularly non-Tories who opposed Brexit, loathe the blonde Brexiteer.

However, 2019 Tory voters who backed Brexit often voice their disappointment in the Tory Party toppling the 60-year-old in July 2022.

Such voters instead yearn for Johnson to live up to the inference from his resignation speech similarly to Cincinnatus “return to his plough” before completing a remarkable comeback.

Harking back to 2019, voters remember Johnson’s victory promising to Get Brexit Done.

The then-Prime Minister painted large swathes of leave-voting England and Wales blue, many constituencies for the first time.

From Bassetlaw to Broxbourne, Don Valley to Dover and Spelthorne to Stoke-on-Trent North, the Conservative Party had a unique opportunity to forge a new identity and more importantly a new vision for the country.

For many reasons, including Johnson’s own incompetence in No10, the opportunity of a lifetime was squandered.

And it is fair to say we will not know if Johnson could turn Tory fortunes around.

The former Prime Minister, bruised by partygate, left office with an approval rating not too dissimilar to Sunak’s ahead of polling day.

However, Johnson is notably more popular than his successor-bar-one amongst Brexit-backers and 2019 Tories.

Such voters explain why the Tories look poised to suffer an electoral wipeout worse than either 1997 or 1906.

Sunak is now struggling to etch above 33 per cent, with some polls suggesting Reform UK is attracting more Brexit supporters than Sunak.

Johnson, who won over three-quarters of 2016 Brexit-backers in 2019, clung onto more than half of leave supporters at the time he announced his intention to resign.However, and with so many leading Tory figures waking up and smelling the coffee, there is a sense of regret about Johnson’s departure.“I don’t know why we did it,” a senior ex-Cabinet Minister told GB News.

Another former Cabinet Minister said: “It’s clear now we should have stuck with Boris.”

“I would be surprised,” a Johnson ally added, “if there are many Conservative MPs who can look in the mirror this morning and say ‘we are in a much better place than we were when Boris was Prime Minister’.”

Opinion polls even suggest Johnson was chasing a Labour lead still in the single-digits but now Sunak facing a mountainous task of Starmer streaking ahead by more than 20-points.

Despite being known for a blunder or two, Johnson’s finest electoral moments came on the all-important campaign trail.

Twice defeating Ken Livingstone as London Mayor, Johnson defied the odds to run a Labour-leaning city as a true blue Tory.

However, the central moment came in 2016 when Johnson decisively opted to back the Vote Leave campaign.

Venturing up and down the country, crowds flocked to listen to Johnson’s pitch on why Britain is better off out of the Brussels bloc.

A source close to the former Prime Minister said: “There are people in the country that would never and have never liked Boris.

"However, time and time again, whenever he hits a high street, or a local pub, or a town hall, or a council estate, or a lovely Conservative shire, people are hanging out of their windows, rushing into the street, desperately trying to get a selfie with Boris.”

Johnson’s most remarkable moment came on the evening of June 21, 2016, just hours before polls opened for the most important vote in this country’s post-war history.

“There is a very clear choice between those on the Remain side who speak of nothing but fear of the consequences of leaving the EU – and we on our side who offer hope,” the then-future Prime Minister said.

“Between those who have been endlessly rubbishing our country and running it down, and those of us who believe in Britain.

"They say we can't do it, we say we can. They say we have no choice but to bow down to Brussels. We say they are woefully underestimating this country and what it can do.

"If we vote leave, we can take back control of our borders, of huge sums of money, £10billion net, of our tax-raising powers, of our trade policy and of our whole law-making system.

“The democracy that is the foundation of our prosperity. And, if we stand up for democracy we will be speaking up for hundreds of millions of people around Europe who agree with us but currently have no choice.

“And if we vote leave, and take back control, I believe that this Thursday can be our country’s independence day.”

Much more remarkable than Johnson’s prose in that defining closing speech was the reaction from those crammed into Wembley Arena.

Johnson’s closing statement was followed by 30-seconds of rapturous applause as faint boos were drowned out by affirming whistles and cries of “Boris, Boris”.

Veteran BBC presenter David Dimbleby even had to intervene to quell the crowd, saying: “Alright, alright, alright. Please. Thank you.”

The short speech delivered an almost complete change of atmosphere; offering much-needed hope and ambition.

The landslide victory that followed three years later, which saw an Old Etonian swamped by support in left-behind communities such as Middlesbrough, clearly demonstrated how, just like Farage, Johnson is able to speak directly with voters all but forgotten by the political Establishment.

And even once entering Downing Street, Johnson pulled off otherwise unprecedented victories in Hartlepool and in local election contests.

Admittedly, Johnson’s bubble seemingly started to burst as the Blue Wall crumbled in Chesham & Amersham and Labour knocked its first brick out of the Red Wall in Wakefield.

Allies of the former Prime Minister are far from certain Johnson would even want to return to the fold and its fair to say there is no love lost with Farage either.

However, with little evidence to suggest otherwise, Tories must ask themselves, who else do they even have?