Sunak resurgence at risk: ‘Nigel Farage could crush the Tory Party’

Richard Tice, who succeeded Farage as leader of the rebranded Brexit Party in March 2021, held a press conference on Wednesday to set out his stall ahead of polling day and unveil Ben Habib as the party’s candidate in the upcoming Wellingborough by-election.

However, a former Downing Street pollster argued Farage could land a fatal blow against the Conservative Party by replacing Tice.

JL Partners co-founder James Johnson told GB News: “Farage leading Reform gets them from 10 per cent to 15 per cent, or eight per cent to 13 per cent, and that makes a big difference. If Farage became leader of Reform, I think that would really very significantly boost their chances in terms of both vote share and in terms of their impact on the election.

“They’d have a much bigger chance of crushing the Tories, so to speak. But I’m not sure that they necessarily get any seats. That’s not a reflection on Farage but it’s a reflection on the reality of the electoral system.”

He also suggested Sunak would likely somewhat narrow Labour’s more than 20-point lead ahead of polling day, with many Reform voters pivoting back to the Tories.

However, Reform UK’s decision to stand in all 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales could still pose problems for the Conservative Party.

Johnson explained: “I think the Conservatives will talk about the risk of Keir Starmer, and some of those Reform switchers will come back on board. But I still think that even at five per cent it is going to be enough to take some votes from the Tories in a lot of their key seats.

“Is it greater if Farage is on the ticket? Of course, it is. But even with Tice, as it currently stands, I think they will have an impact on the Conservative vote.”

A report released by JL Partners last month titled ‘Implosion in Blue: A Year of Conservative Decline’ analysed collapsing support for the Conservative Party.

It found Reform UK has been outperforming the Liberal Democrats by pulling in three times as many switchers from the Tories.

Reform UK will look to benefit from disaffection with the Tory Party in the heartlands Farage tapped into both with Ukip and the Brexit Party.

Johnson pointed out that the Brexit Party performed particularly well in safe Labour seats which voted to leave the European Union, including in Barnsley.

However, Reform could perform better in the Red Wall seats snatched by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2019.

Long-standing Tory-held seats could also prove fruitful, with Theresa May’s ex-chief pollster claiming the most support he had seen for Farage in a focus group came in Thurrock.

Johnson added: “There’s this desire for a strong speaker, someone who just says it how it is, cutting out the nonsense. You can definitely see a world in which the Tories switchers to Reform let Labour sneak through the backdoor.

“It’s also possible in the Lib Dem facing marginals. We like to pretend that these places in the Home Counties are sort of cuddly-liberal places but they’re not. You could see Lib Dem support rising naturally and then the Tory vote coming down because some of the more socially conservative voters are also moving to Reform.”

Reform could snatch some votes from Labour but Sir Keir Starmer has already bolstered his electoral reserves by winning over a number of 2019 Liberal Democrat supporters immediately after replacing Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition.

The recent boost in the opinion polls for Reform UK has not yet managed to lure Farage back to the frontline or to announce his candidacy in the election.

However, 2024 could prove Farage’s best opportunity to enter the House of Commons after seven unsuccessful attempts.

Tice was forced to address a barrage of questions about Farage’s future at the populist party’s press conference on Wednesday.

“We’ve been talking over the Christmas period and he’s obviously giving a lot of thought as to the extent of the role he wants to play in helping Reform UK frankly save Britain,” he said.

“He is still assessing that. Nigel is the master of political timing but I’m very clear the job at hand is so big to save Britain, the more that Nigel is able to give in the election campaign, frankly, the better.”

However, Tice also told GB News: “I think that the least likely thing is that Nigel would stand under a first-past-the-post system in a constituency. He’s consistently said that he wouldn’t and we want proportional representation.”

Leading figures from Reform UK have warned the populist party could replace the Tories.

Tice announced the populist party would not emulate its 2019 decision to stand down candidates against sitting Conservative MPs.

Reform UK’s leader will instead put up candidates in 632 seats, adding: “You’ve all broken Britain, you’re all responsible. There are no special deals.”

Farage also said: “Reform isn't here for one election. It's here for the long term to try and replace the existing establishment parties.”

After being unveiled as Reform UK’s candidate in Wellingborough, Habib told reporters: “The reason I am standing in Wellingborough is because it is not sufficient anymore simply to defeat the Tories.

“We have to lead the way, Reform UK has to lead the way and get seats in Parliament.”

However, a number of former Ukip insiders believe Reform UK's campaign will be unable to translate crushing the Tories into seats.

Suzanne Evans, who served as Ukip’s deputy chair under Farage, told GB News: “It rather suggests to me that they don’t want to win seats, they just want to destroy the Tories.”

A former Ukip insider added: “It looks like Reform will just use their power to damage the Tories because even they know the chance of them winning a seat is pretty much not going to happen. They just want to be as destructive to the Conservative Party as possible.”

However, ex-Ukip MEP Patrick O’Flynn is confident Reform UK will not see its support drop significantly come polling day.

“It doesn’t look to be that close an election unless the polls tighten up and what offer do the Tories have that’s irresistible to right-leaning voters,” he explained.

“In 2015, they had the referendum on Europe and also a lot of voters thought that if Ed Miliband got in he’d be in the pocket of Nicola Sturgeon, who lots of English voters came to loathe. I just don’t particularly see what offer the Tories have got this time around.

“They’ve pretty much got Brexit done but the Tories have failed on both legal and illegal immigration. Faith in that is really questioned. And on a whole load of other areas, from net zero to over-taxation and law and order, they seem pretty indistinguishable from Starmer and the Labour Party.

“I don’t particularly think that you should expect that switch back to the party, especially if Nigel is articulating some of those policy areas with complete authenticity and vigour. I personally think that the prospects for Reform, getting a vote share akin to UKIP in 2015, is perfectly feasible.”

However, a 2015 Ukip candidate warned the populist party against outwardly vowing to destroy the Conservative Party.

Tim Aker, who missed out on winning in Thurrock in 2015 by just 974 votes, said: “Don’t underestimate the value of the phrase ‘Stop Labour’ in British democracy. There’s still a large chunk of voters out there who will not vote for a party that will let in another party that they don’t like.

“That’s something that should weigh heavily on them because that was the experience in 2015 when the Conservatives campaign changed to billboards of Alex Salmond with Ed Miliband in his pocket, and also with Nicola Sturgeon.

“It was a brilliant campaign. The message discipline was fantastic for the Conservatives but it was mobilising people to vote against something. If Reform UK goes down the line of saying they want to wipe out the Conservative Party, a lot of voters will see that as we will definitely get Labour and that will get a lot of people’s backs up.”