Nigel Farage could snatch up to 450 council seats as Kemi Badenoch's Tories look to set to lose almost half of the wards they are currently defending, a top pollster has claimed.
Lord Hayward, a polling expert and Conservative peer, suggested Reform UK could expect gains between 400 and 450 seats when voters cast their ballots at the start of next month.
Such a scenario would mean Farage ends up returning the most councillors, having not won a single seat four years ago.
Meanwhile, Badenoch, who already admitted the Tories face a "difficult" set of Local Elections, could lose between 474 and 525 seats. However, coming from a high base point after a successful set of elections in 2021, come May 1 the party is still expected to be the second biggest winner after Reform UK.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage
GETTY
After results in 2021 that Sir Keir Starmer himself admitted were a "bitter disappointment" for Labour, Hayward is expecting the now governing party to struggle to increase its number of seats.
He told The Telegraph: “They [Labour] will make some gains from the Conservatives but there will be losses to Reform and others.
“They will fail to take seats in the Midlands and the North that they should have won.”
Addressing the threat posed by the Liberal Democrats, the polling guru added: "In the South and West it will be predominantly the Conservatives versus the Liberal Democrats, while Labour versus Reform will be fighting it out for dominance in the East Midlands and the North.
Map of wards being defended if all contest went ahead in the 2025 Local ElectionsElectionMapsUK“The dividing line will, in essence, be a line from the Wash to the Severn.”
Farage, who is setting his sights on building on Reform UK’s performance in the 2024 General Election, is fielding 1,624 candidates across England on May 1.
Reform UK is contesting more wards than any of its rival parties and increased its candidates compared to last year’s Local Elections five-fold.
Opinion polls have also suggested Runcorn & Helsby’s upcoming by-election is a close contest between Reform UK and Labour.
Nigel Farage's Reform UK are set to win as many as 450 seats
PA
Speaking to The Telegraph while campaigning in Shropshire, Farage revealed how likely he think it is that he will replace Starmer as Prime Minister at the next General Election.
He said: “Can I become prime minister? At the moment I put it at 35 to 45 per cent.”
When asked if he finds himself thinking about the prospect of entering No10, the Clacton MP added: “No, I think about what I’m doing tomorrow.
“All that stuff, it’s like being on the 10th tee and saying, ‘gosh, this round’s going well, if I play the back nine in the same way as the front nine, I’ll win the competition’. It doesn’t do.”
