'Writing's on the wall!' Tories warn Kemi Badenoch faces 'threat BIGGER than Nigel Farage' as Reform civil war steals limelight

However, Conservative insiders fear the threat from the Liberal Democrats in the Remain-voting shires is being underpriced.

“The threat in the south isn’t mainly from Farage or Reform,” a senior Tory source told the People’s Channel. “It’s from the Lib Dems. They’ve got a base and it’s currently bigger than Reform’s.”

Disaster for Badenoch could spell trouble for the Tory leader, with opinion polls also showing a slump in support since the Conservative Party’s abysmal showing in the 2024 General Election.

Liberal Democrats now see May 1 as a golden opportunity to pile pressure on the Leader of the Opposition.

“If bungling Badenoch fails to deliver in the Local Elections,” a Liberal Democrat source told GB News, “the writing will truly be on the wall for her and for the Conservative Party.”

The People’s Channel understands that the Liberal Democrats’ election mastermind, David McCobb, convened a meeting for insiders last month, with activists now being deployed to key wards and staff ramping up the party's door-knocking efforts ahead of May 1.

Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, Cornwall, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Oxfordshire, Shropshire and Wiltshire will all feature in Badenoch’s battle with Sir Ed Davey’s centrist collection.

The Liberal Democrats snatched 20 seats across the 10 counties in the last General Election, all at the expense of the Tories.

Victories across the Blue Wall last summer followed a series of by-election wins, including Chesham & Amersham and North Shropshire in 2021, Tiverton & Honiton in 2022 and Somerton & Frome in 2023.

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Oxfordshire, once a bastion of true blue conservatism, fell into the Liberal Democrats’ laps at a council level in 2021, with the Greens propping up a progressive coalition at County Hall.

However, gaining David Cameron’s former seat of Witney and Boris Johnson’s old patch of Henley last summer was seen as a symbolic moment for the Liberal Democrats’ Blue Wall resurgence.

Tory support in Oxfordshire stood at 49 per cent in 2015, almost 30 per cent ahead of Labour in second, with five out of the county’s six seats returning a Conservative MP.

However, just seven years after the Liberal Democrats managed to snatch Oxford West & Abingdon in 2017, the centrist grouping returned five Oxfordshire MPs to the House of Commons, leaving the leafy Home County Tory-less for the first time.

The Liberal Democrats only managed to re-establish its second-place position in Oxfordshire in the 2019 General Election after standing on the firmest ground for supporters of the European Union, with Johnson retaining top spot despite his commitment to “Get Brexit Done”.

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Davey managed to surge into first place last July, securing 35 per cent of the vote and opening up an eight-point lead over the Tories.

Meanwhile, Reform UK’s support fell below its national average in all seven Oxfordshire seats, hovering fractionally below 10 per cent of the vote countywide.

The figure was also marginally lower than the percentage accumulated for Ukip in 2015 but a negative Brexit factor appears to have transformed Oxfordshire’s electorate.

Despite Reform UK struggling to leave a mark, a local Tory source stressed the populist party’s emergence as a protest vote could ensure that the Liberal Democrats cement their support in England’s leafy shires.

The Oxfordshire Conservative told GB News: “The Lib Dems and the Greens are our main opponents and the likely problem of having Reform candidates could take those few hundred votes away and hand the key to County Hall to the Lib Dems for another four years.”

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A Blue Wall Conservative MP also warned Badenoch is bracing for a battle on several frontiers.

The top Tory told GB News: “We need to be aware of political threats on all fronts.”

The Liberal Democrats have also looked to join Reform UK in voicing anger about the decision to cancel council elections across nine other local authorities.

“Conservatives in councils such as Surrey and Hampshire asked for their elections to be delayed because they knew what the results would have been,” a Liberal Democrat insider told GB News. “The Conservatives are running scared of the Liberal Democrats across the country, and the Labour Government’s plans mean they will be in power well beyond their sell-by date.”

However, a split on the right could still open the door to the Liberal Democrats to form joint administrations alongside Labour in Cornwall, Devon, Gloucestershire, Shropshire and West Sussex, Electoral Calculus research has suggested.

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Electoral Calculus’s polling gurus also believe that Oxfordshire could soon fall into Davey’s hands outright, giving the Liberal Democrat leader another opportunity to land a hammer blow in the heart of the Blue Wall.

And the picture is markedly different compared to council areas in Brexit-backing England, with Reform UK’s surge in Lincolnshire outstripping Ukip’s 2015 showing on 23 per cent.

Johnson’s Brexit crusade appeared to snatch support from ex-Ukip and Labour voters in 2019, later ensuring Rishi Sunak suffered a popular vote bloodbath in 2024.

The 2024 General Election saw 25 per cent of 2019 Tories switch to Reform UK nationwide, compared to just seven per cent heading to the Liberal Democrats and 10 per cent backing Labour.

YouGov data shows 22 per cent of 2024 Tories have since switched to support Farage and just five per cent would now back Davey’s party.

However, in a reversal of the high levels of concentrated support for the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK’s backing remains comparatively sporadic.

Despite Reform UK’s nationwide support topping 4.1 million votes compared to 3.5 million for the Liberal Democrats, Davey’s centrist outfit secured 72 seats in the 2024 General Election, significantly more than the five representing the populist party.

The Liberal Democrats’ effective ground game has left Reform UK insiders pleading with supporters to emulate the centrist outfit.

Speaking at Reform UK’s annual conference last September, Farage said: “I never thought I’d say this, but we have to model ourselves on the Liberal Democrats.”

A Reform UK insider also told GB News: “The Liberal Democrats could get blood out of a stone with their ground campaign. It’s massive and a game-changer. We need to get to that stage.”

However, Reform UK's implosion today threatens to plunge the populist party into chaos, with Lowe denying the allegations and accusing Farage's outfit of a stitch-up.

But with support for the Liberal Democrats mostly concentrated in Remain-voting leafy English shires, the Tories risk haemorrhaging even more seats as opinion polls note a slight increase since last summer.

Ex-Chancellor Jeremy Hunt clung onto his South West Surrey seat by the narrowest of margins, with another 20 Tory seats requiring a swing of less than eight per cent to fall into Liberal Democrat hands.

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Reform UK’s detractors also point out that the populist party has only managed to pick up 13 council by-elections out of more than 200 contests since the 2024 General Election.

Despite the underwhelming return, Reform UK retains top-spot in the latest poll of polls, with 25.9 per cent support edging out 25.3 per cent for Labour, 21.9 per cent for the Tories and 12.9 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.

However, a detailed breakdown by Britain Predicts shows that the latest by-election results imply Reform UK is neck-and-neck with the Tories on 24 per cent.

Meanwhile, Labour has witnessed its support collapse to just 19 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats leapfrogging Sir Keir Starmer into third on 20 per cent.

But a recent Opinium poll has also given the Liberal Democrats much to smile about ahead of May 1.

The survey, conducted around six weeks ago, put Davey’s party in pole position when respondents were asked which party they currently or might consider voting for.

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The Liberal Democrats received a sky-high 45 per cent figure, three points ahead of the Tories, five per cent ahead of Labour and six points up on Reform UK.

Reform UK separately topped the list when voters were asked which party they would never consider voting for.

However, there was a difference between steadfast backers and wavering supporters, with Opinium confirming the populist party’s support stands on a much more solid footing than any of its rivals.

The Liberal Democrats, who might be peering towards Kent as a key battleground which will feature all four major parties, have also been ramping up attacks on Reform UK over the situation in Ukraine.

An attack advert was shared earlier this week which labelled a toy version of Farage a “plastic patriot” and claimed the Clacton MP is a “boot-licker” to Donald Trump.

“Farage should be ashamed to be associated with someone slinging insults at Zelensky, who’s fighting to save his country from Putin,” a Liberal Democrat MP told GB News.

“The Reform leader is more interested in chumming up to Trump and his associates than addressing the concerns of his constituents in Clacton.”

Starmer also piled in on Farage by accusing the Reform UK leader of “fawning” to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Dame Priti Patel comparing her one-time friend to disgraced former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

However, Farage appeared to sidestep Tory attacks by coming out against JD Vance’s apparent criticisms of the British military more strongly than Badenoch.

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The Reform UK leader labelled the Vice President’s attack as “wrong, wrong, wrong”, while Badenoch appeared to disagree with her own Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge by defending the Vice President.

And the Liberal Democrats have decided to pounce on Badenoch's pivot to the right.

An insider told GB News: “Whilst they [the Tories] compete with Reform over who can best imitate the politics of Trump here, the Liberal Democrats are focused on delivering for residents on issues including the cost of living, sewage in our rivers and the emergency in our NHS and care.”

Despite her politics being compared to those of Reform UK, there is no love lost between Badenoch and Farage.

Badenoch sparked fury last December after peddling an unfounded claim about Reform UK fiddling its membership ticker.

Farage responded by identifying her North West Essex seat as a key target ahead of the next General Election.

And it would appear a recent swipe from the Tory leader is also giving Liberal Democrats a reason to ramp up efforts.

A Liberal Democrat insider quipped: "Kemi recently said that 'Liberal Democrats aren't on Twitter, they're in their communities... they're good at fixing the church roof.' At this rate, we'll be hiring her to draft our leaflets for us."