Sir Keir Starmer’s attacks against Nigel Farage risk falling on deaf ears because of one problem facing the Labour Party, a top pollster has told GB News.
The Prime Minister, who was left languishing in third place in More in Common’s most recent opinion poll, is deploying a three-part assault against Reform UK in a bid to shore up support ahead of the 2025 Local Elections.
Launching Labour’s campaign in Derbyshire this week, Starmer went after Farage on the NHS, workers' rights and Ukraine.
“They voted against fire and rehire,” the Prime Minister said. “They voted against scrapping exploitative zero hours contracts. They voted against sick leave and maternity pay. That's what they do.”
Sir Keir Starmer launching his Locals Election campaign
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Starmer added: "And what about the NHS? They want to charge people for using our NHS. They claim to be the party of patriotism.
“There's nothing patriotic about fawning over Putin.”
The spat sparked a furious response from Farage just hours later.
In a sit-down interview with GB News, the Reform UK leader fumed: “I’m pretty annoyed that the Prime Minister is reverting to outright lies.”
Despite arguing Starmer’s messaging is salient with voters, JL Partners’s co-founder James Johnson highlighted how the issue of immigration could restrict Labour’s reach.
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage fumed about the accusations peddled by the PM
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Johnson, who claimed the title of being the world’s most accurate pollster after predicting Donald Trump’s landslide victory last November, told GB News: “These attacks really show that Farage is showing up as a major red warning light in Labour’s polling.
“Otherwise the Prime Minister would not be wasting time or political capital on this. He’s become a serious threat and they’ve obviously noticed that.”
He added: “The aim that Labour will be trying to pursue is to say to those longer-term Labour voters, perhaps those who voted for Boris in 2019, that there is a disconnect between Reform’s values and their own, particularly on the NHS and workers' rights.
“The question is whether it’ll work. The struggle Labour has is that the values it has that are disconnected from voters, especially on immigration, patriotism and being straight-talking, matter more than the issues around the NHS, workers' rights and foreign affairs.
“Reform does have a disconnect problem but it looks like Labour has a bigger one.”
Former Number 10 pollster James Johnson claimed the title of being the world’s most accurate pollster after predicting Donald Trump’s landslide victory last November
GB NEWSA recent JL Partners poll even showed immigration as the second most important issue to voters at the moment, narrowly missing out on top-spot to the cost-of-living crisis.
It also showed that Britons consider Farage more straight-talking, patriotic and charismatic than Starmer, giving the Reform UK leader a key advantage against the Prime Minister among swing voters.
Such a scenario leaves Starmer vulnerable to a migrant crisis backlash after he was this week told that his small boats record is worse than any other Prime Minister since the crisis first rocked Britain in 2018.
A staggering 30,000 migrants have completed the perilous 21-mile journey since Starmer entered No10 last July, equating to roughly 780 per week.
The figure is higher than the 570 weekly average arriving under Rishi Sunak and the 400 crossing the Channel during Boris Johnson’s stint in No10.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, speaking during the launch of the Labour Party local election campaign at a distribution centre for Peak Pharmacy, in ChesterfieldPAMeanwhile, Reform UK is taking a much harder stance on the issue.
Lee Anderson told the People’s Channel: “Reform’s plan is simple: detain and deport to put an end to the use of hotels to house migrants.”
Johnson also went on to warn that voters might express some Brexit-style scepticism when absorbing Starmer’s counter-Reform strategy.
He explained: “Labour needs to be careful not to go down the scaremongering route.
“Voters have become very perceptive and aware of things that just don’t ring true and Project Fear prompted that concern.
“A lot of Labour voters targeted by Farage would have been Leave voters and will know what those two words mean and therefore they will be wary, especially in a world where they get lots of information from lots of different sources, of the veracity of some of those claims.
“It’s a sound strategy but because of Labour’s existing problems with voters, particularly on immigration, and general concerns about how true these claims might be, I slightly doubt its efficacy.”
Nigel Farage has been in campaign mode ahead of the 2025 Local ElectionsPAJL Partners’s latest poll shows 11 per cent of 2024 Labour voters now believe Farage would make a better Prime Minister than Starmer, with just seven per cent preferring Kemi Badenoch.
A staggering 22 per cent of Labour voters also somewhat or strongly approve of how Farage is doing as the leader of Reform, only slightly higher than the 18 per cent who would consider voting for the populist party at the next general election.
However, in a boost to the Prime Minister, Johnson also told the People’s Channel that painting the electoral contest as a straight shoot-out between Starmer and Farage could ensure Labour wins back disgruntled liberal-leaning voters currently looking elsewhere.
“Voters on the left - those going to the Greens and Liberal Democrats - appear more likely to tactically vote Starmer in that scenario because they fear Farage more than Badenoch,” Johnson said.
In JL Partners' March polling, 33 per cent of 2024 Liberal Democrat voters preferred Starmer as Prime Minister compared to just 13 per cent for Farage and 15 per cent Badenoch.
Around one-in-five 2024 Liberal Democrat voters would also consider voting Labour at the next general election.
