Starmer faces Reform UK by-election nightmare if sucker-punching Labour MP quits - analysis by Jack Walters

Amesbury, who initially claimed he felt “threatened” and was acting in self-defence, lost the Labour whip after Sir Keir Starmer saw the “shocking” footage.

Immediately before Labour announced Amesbury’s suspension, Reform UK demanded an urgent by-election contest in the marginally Brexit-backing constituency.

“It’s quite clear that the people of Runcorn and Helsby deserve far better than this,” a Reform UK spokesman said.

Runcorn & Helsby featured on Reform UK’s 89-strong list of Labour seats which saw the populist party’s candidate finish runner-up on July 4.

However, Reform UK candidate Jason Moorcroft still trailed Amesbury by 14,696 votes.

Runcorn & Helsby, which is mostly made up of wards from the old Weaver Vale and Halton seats, was not the most fruitful territory for Ukip in 2015.

However, after making major gains compared to the Brexit Party’s 4.8 per cent support in 2019, Reform UK hoovered up 18.1 per cent of ballots, leapfrogging the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives into a distant second-place.

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Based on the 2024 General Election result, nobody would logically expect Reform UK to seriously challenge Labour if a by-election is eventually called.

Nevertheless, and despite romping to a 170-seat landslide victory, Starmer’s personal support continues to tumble after punishing pensioners by axing Winter Fuel Payments and letting inmates leave prisons early.

Scandals around donor donations, high-profile No10 infighting and continuous Channel crossings certainly do not help the Prime Minister either.

Starmer’s pledge to bring change, after years of incompetence and ineptitude, is already starting to feel performative to millions of voters.

The Prime Minister’s personal approval dropped from into the red shortly after entering No10, with Savanta now putting Starmer at -43 per cent.

And there certainly isn’t as much of negative enthusiasm which could propel Labour after voters booted the Tories out of power on July 4, with a penny-pinching Budget will only adding further fuel to the fire.

During the Conservative Party’s dying days in Downing Street, by-elections highlighted just how unforgiving the electorate has become.

By-election after by-election exhibited anti-Tory feelings in full.

Liberal Democrat victories in North Shropshire, Tiverton & Honiton, Somerton & Frome, and Chesham & Amersham all witnessed swings of 25.1 per cent to 34.2 per cent.

Labour often made similar inroads, with the most recent by-elections - in Wellingborough and Blackpool South - demonstrating just that.

Excluding Rochdale, which included a pro-Palestine element that made the contest an outlier, Kingswood was the only Starmer target by-election that saw a swing from Tory to Labour below 20 per cent.

However, even in the often brief period between the respective by-election contest and 2024 General Election, the remaining five unaltered English seats show a striking drop in Labour support.

Blackpool South, which held its by-election just nine weeks July 4, twice elected Chris Webb.

Webb’s initial 20.6 per cent bump was reduced by 10.8 per cent just nine-weeks later, with Reform UK twice increasing its vote share by more than 10 per cent to put the populist party in second-place.

Tory support immediately collapsed by 32.1 per cent, ultimately dropping by a further 1.9 per cent on July 4.

Wellingborough MP Gen Kitchen won the Northamptonshire’s by-election with a 19.4 per cent surge as Tory support collapsed by 37.6 per cent.

However, Reform UK’s 13 per cent soon became 21.5 per cent, with Tory support modestly boosting by 3.2 per cent and Labour down 5.6 per cent.

Despite the Conservative Party suffering its worst defeat since 1906, these by-elections certainly highlighted a spike of anti-Tory sentiment immediately before the 2024 General Election.

West Lancashire, which is much more similar to Runcorn & Helsby as a fellow safe seat, saw Labour support flatline at around 50 per cent between 2019 and 2024.

However, the North West’s 2023 by-election handed Labour a 10.2 per cent to take Ashley Dalton to 62.3 per cent.

Tory support tumbled twice over, with Reform UK going from just 4.4 per cent to 17.9 per cent in the space of five-years.

But what does all of this actually show?

It shows that voters have become less deferential, less forgiving and less politically dependable.

Reform UK, far more than the Tories, would expect a massive bounce in Runcorn & Helsby.

The populist party has a mountain to climb to actually claim victory in Cheshire if a by-election is forced by the end of the year.

However, a slump in Labour support, surge for Reform UK and tumbling turnout will point to a Prime Minister entering electorally unchartered waters.

It would bring about a political nightmare for Starmer just months after jittery Labour MPs were making his right-hand man Morgan McSweeney aware of their fears about a resurgent Reform UK.