Matt Goodwin says new GB News People’s Poll data puts Reform above the Tories in terms of vote share, but believes the number of seats they will be rewarded with will renew calls for a change in electoral system.
The new poll puts Labour comfortably ahead with 36 per cent of the vote, with Reform following at 20 per cent.
The Tories have less votes than Nigel Farage’s insurgent party with just 16 per cent of the share, according to the poll.
The results, which have been drawn from a survey of 1,230 people, also shows that only a minority of voters think Britain will be in safe hands with a Labour government.
Matt Goodwin has given his take on new polling data
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Speaking on GB News, pollster Matt Goodwin said he expects a disproportionate vote with Reform picking up a low number of seats despite a high vote share.
“We expect the Reform Party vote share, not necessarily seat share, to be higher than what a lot of other pollsters are putting it at”, he said.
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“There is a lot of analysis showing that this will be the most disproportional election since 1983.
“Since the SDP almost replaced Labour in the national polls. That means we’re going to see votes not corresponding to the same number of seats.
“You might see, for example, Nigel Farage and Reform, a bit like he did in 2015, polling four million votes but only coming out with one or two seats.
“You might see the Conservatives polling a low share of the vote compared to what they are used to but also a fairly high number of seats.”
Matt Goodwin joined Tom Harwood and Emily Carver on GB News
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Goodwin believes this will trigger a new wave of apathy across Britain with many voters backing parties that aren’t rewarded with a significant presence in the House of Commons.
Britain’s First Past the Post voting system could subsequently come into question, Goodwin suggested, as it has done so in the past after delivering disproportionate results.
He said: “One of the main messages from this election I suspect will be this case for reform.
“A lot of people will feel they have been voting for parties that did not win seats and we are going to have a lot of apathy.
Matt Goodwin said Farage may end up disappointed with the number of seats his party gets
PA“Another thing to keep your eye on is turnout. It might fall into the low 60s or the high 50s.”
The results also indicate little tribal loyalty in British politics, with half the country saying they are only “lending their party of choice their vote”. Only 20 per cent said they were voting loyally.
“Interestingly, nearly 60 per cent of Labour voters say they are ‘lending’ Labour their vote, which underlines the challenge Keir Starmer has. This suggests that while Labour might be dominant in the polls, this support may well turn out to be fleeting.”
One reason for the large change in votes could be that only one in four voters think the outcome of the election will make a “big difference” to their lives.
