Populism loves a martyr. After France's shock verdict yesterday, Marine Le Pen looks set to become one.
The leader of France's National Rally party was convicted of embezzling European Union funds, resulting in a five-year ban from holding public office and a four-year prison sentence with two years suspended. This verdict prevents her from participating in the 2027 presidential election.
The criminal courts found that Le Pen, along with eight other current or former members of the European Parliament and 12 former assistants, misappropriated approximately €4.4million (£3.74million) intended for European Parliamentary assistants, redirecting these funds to pay party staff not involved in parliamentary work.
The timing carries political significance: Le Pen had led polls for the first round of the 2027 election so barring her from running upends the presidential race.
Marine Le Pen's conviction could propel her to power
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As Le Pen did not personally enrich herself through the embezzlement of EU funds but rather was at the "heart of the system", critics say the ruling was unusually harsh for carrying an immediate sentence and is therefore politically motivated.
This response was to be expected from Le Pen - who will appeal against the verdict "as soon as possible" - and those in her immediate orbit, who quickly alleged a witch-hunt.
However, right-wing leaders around the world also decried the court ruling, branding it an affront to democracy.
“I don’t know the merit of the objections made to Marine Le Pen, nor the reasons for such a strong decision, but I think that no one who cares about democracy can rejoice in a sentence that affects the leader of a large party and takes away representation from millions of citizens,” Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told Italian newspaper Il Messaggero.
"I am Marine!" exclaimed Viktor Orbán, Hungary's Prime Minister, in a French-language social media post.
However, it was Donald Trump's reaction that carried the most significance.
The US President dubbed Le Pen's conviction and ban from running for office a "very big deal", adding: "That sounds very much like this country", apparently drawing parallels to the legal battles he experienced in the run-up to his second presidential bid.
Whether intentional or not, Trump highlighted how the ruling could propel RN and its charismatic leader to power.
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The perception that the ruling was undemocratic could mobilise Le Pen's base and boost her popularity among the wider electorate
GettyHe's well-placed to comment. From the hush money trial to the classified documents case and criminal probe into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, Trump faced a barrage of legal battles leading up to his second-term campaign.
Instead of sinking his candidacy, Trump’s legal battles reinforced his outsider status, boosted his fundraising, and solidified his grip on the Republican base.
Indeed, polling found Trump’s standing in the Republican primary actually increased after each indictment, cementing his dominance over rivals like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.
Although it was the economy and culture war issues that ultimately cost Kamala Harris the election, Trump's narrative that the system was out to get him galvanised voters.
A higher percentage of voters supported Trump in November than in either 2020 or 2016, in neither of which years he faced any indictments, let alone jury convictions.
Le Pen will be encouraged by his comeback story as her convictions may strengthen her appeal among supporters who view her as a victim of the establishment.
The perception that the ruling was undemocratic could mobilise her base and boost her popularity among the wider electorate even if she loses her appeal and is barred from running in 2027.
She will be encouraged by polling from February, where 48 per cent of French people said “nothing moves in democracy, there should be less democracy and more effectiveness”.
