Labour has suffered a heavy electoral blow as the party lost a by-election in the Ilford area of northeast London.
Voters went to the polls yesterday in the Mayfield ward of Redbridge where Labour was mounting a defence.
In 2022, Starmer’s party swept to power with 71 per cent of the vote, but their huge majority crumbled yesterday as the Ilford Independents took the seat.
Labour’s vote share crashed 44.7 per cent with the independent scooping 42.5 per cent of the electorate. The Conservatives came third with 19.4 per cent while Reform finished fourth with 4.8 per cent.
Mayfield election result
GBN
Traditionally a safe Labour area with a large Muslim population, Mayfield voters punished Starmer for a series of unpopular decisions including stripping pensioners of winter fuel payments and allowing UK arms sales to Israel.
Labour also recorded another poor by-election result in Penllergaer (Swansea) this morning, despite south Wales being a strong Labour area.
The party came fourth after attracting just 6.6 per cent of the vote (down 5.6 per cent of the vote), behind Reform UK (10.7 per cent), the Lib Dems (13.6 per cent) and the winning independent candidate (63.9 per cent).
The final election of the night was held in Maldon North near Maldon, Essex, a traditionally safe Tory area.
The Conservatives won it with 41.1 per cent of the vote, beating the Lib Dems into second (36.4 per cent) and Reform UK into third (16.7 per cent).
The results come as a major warning to Sir Keir Starmer ahead of the local elections in May when over 1,600 councillors will be elected to 23 authorities.
The Prime Minister was dealt another poll blow yesterday when respected pollsters FindOutNow published their latest research that put Reform UK in first place across the UK.
The ‘disruptor party’ polled 26 per cent, three percentage points ahead of second placed Labour and four ahead of the third placed Conservatives.
Find Out Now poll, March 27
Find Out Now
A scan of the UK’s national pollsters' latest findings shows a three-horse race emerging between the three parties.
More In Common – Conservative 1pt lead
CON: 25% (+1)
RFM: 24% (-1)
LAB: 24% (-1)
YouGov – Labour 1pt lead
LAB: 23% (-3)
RFM: 22% (-2)
CON: 22% (=)
Opinium – Labour and Reform tied
LAB: 26% (-2)
RFM: 26% (-1)
CON: 21% (+1)
Techne UK – Labour 4pt lead
LAB: 27% (=)
CON: 23% (+1)
RFM: 23% (-1)
Delta Poll UK – Labour 1pt lead
LAB: 25% (-4)
CON: 25% (=)
RFM: 23% (+1)
It comes as for the first time since the July General Election the UK’s political parties face a major test with thousands of elections due for England local’s authorities.
A total of 1,641 councillors will be elected in May to 23 authorities including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough.
Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party after peak Boris Johnson popularity helped the party achieve stunning gains last time out.
Just one authority is a Labour defence, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).
Of these seven, four are run by Conservative minority administrations, two by Liberal Democrats, and one by Independents.
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Latest Electoral Calculus polling projects the Tories to win 548 councillors in May, an estimated net loss of 390 councillors.
It also shows Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats capitalising on Tory losses.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is tipped to win 474 councillors, scooping 25 per cent of the vote, while Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are set to win 270 councillors and 16 per cent of the vote.
It comes as Labour continues to be punished at council by-elections since the July General Election.
Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 37 seats since July, with the Tories up 24 seats.
Reform UK, for all their dominant polling and headlines, has only won 12 seats (up 12), inviting criticism that they shout the loudest but aren’t producing results.
However, defenders of Reform argue the party has only just professionalised and began from a standing start in terms of candidate recruitment, vetting, membership lists etc.
Reform will be chomping at the bit to record some more electoral victories and prove they are a force to be reckoned with to the establishment parties.
That has certainly been made more difficult by Angela Rayner granting nine councils' permission to cancel elections in May ahead of a shakeup of local government.
Many of the areas that cancelled elections were in strong Reform areas like Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk and the Isle of Wight.
