Labour would lose 163 seats- 40 per cent of its representation in Westminster- in a catastrophic wipeout, a sophisticated poll-aggregating map has revealed.
The projection would see Labour’s majority decimated with Starmer’s party falling 78 seats short of the magic 321 required to rule without entering a coalition.
It would mean the socialist party would have to enter a power sharing alliance with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP who are projected to win 71 and 42 seats (down one and up 33) respectively.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling and weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, shows the Conservatives winning 137 seats, up 16.
Most Labour losses would be inflicted by a rampant Reform UK who would gain 114 seats (up 109) according to the model.
The two right wing parties would win 251 seats between them, well short of the required number to form a coalition (a highly unlikely preposition anyway).
EXPLORE: Labour's projected losses across Britain - is yours one?
Labour's projected losses
GBN
The map reveals there would be several high-profile Labour casualties if an election was held tomorrow.
Cabinet ministers Angela Rayner (Deputy PM), Wes Streeting (Health Secretary), John Healey (Defence Secretary), Yvette Cooper (Home Secretary) and Bridget Phillipson (Education Secretary) are all projected to be unseated.
Streeting’s Ilford North seat would be snatched by an independent candidate, while Healey’s Rawmarsh and Conisbrough would go to Reform.
Reform would also take Cooper’s Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley constituency, Rayner’s Ashton-under-Lyme and Phillipson’s Houghton and Sunderland South patch.
Badenoch’s Conservatives would also be caught in the Reform tidal wave. Big beasts Richard Holden (Shadow Paymaster General), Victoria Atkins (Shadow Defra Secretary) and James Cleverly (former Home Secretary) would all be usurped by Reform.
Big beasts currently projected to lose their seats
Big beasts currently projected to lose their seats
HoC
The model comes as a fresh blow to an increasingly under pressure Starmer whose unpopularity is plumbing new depths every week.
His party’s decisions to remove the winter fuel payment for millions of pensioners, slap farmers with death duties, surrender the Chagos Islands and raise taxes by £40billion have all been met with fury.
Just this week, Starmer has been dogged by controversy over his decision to meet a voice coach in person in December 2020 when the nation was in severe Covid lockdown.
Add to that the Chagos Island 'fiasco’, reported to be costing £18billion to British taxpayers, and the news council elections will be cancelled in nine authorities this May, despite all nine raising tax by hundreds of pounds.
The slew of bad headlines for Starmer has been broadly reflected in recent UK wide polling.
On Monday, highly respected pollsters YouGov put Reform at 25 per cent (+2) with Labour second 24 per cent (-3) and the Conservatives third with 21 per cent (-1).
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It was the first national poll by an organisation other than FindOutNow that gave Reform a national lead.
FindOutNow has repeatedly given Reform higher poll ratings than any other polling company. It gave Reform a four-point lead with Farage’s party polling 27 per cent compared to Labour’s 23 per cent last week.
Reacting, a Reform UK spokesman said: "It’s no surprise we’re polling six points ahead of the Tories.
“The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives. Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions.
"Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms.
“Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 185,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change.
“Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them."
LABOUR MPS PROJECTED TO LOSE SEATS
ENGLAND
Noah Law / St Austell and Newquay / RFM GAIN
Anna Gelderd / South East Cornwall / RFM GAIN
Fred Thomas / Plymouth Moor View / RFM GAIN
Lloyd Hatton / South Dorset / CON GAIN
Neil Duncan-Jordan / Poole / CON GAIN
Sadik Al-Hassan / North Somerset / CON GAIN
Matt Bishop / Forest of Dean / CON GAIN
Yuan Yang / Earley and Woodley / CON GAIN
Olivia Bailey / Reading West and Mid Berkshire / CON GAIN
Peter Swallow / Bracknell / CON GAIN
Amanda Martin / Portsmouth North / CON GAIN
Tony Vaughan / Folkestone and Hythe / RFM GAIN
Mike Tapp / Dover and Deal / RFM GAIN
Polly Billington / East Thanet / RFM GAIN
Sojan Joseph / Ashford / RFM GAIN
Tristan Osborne / Chatham and Aylesford / RFM GAIN
Lauren Edwards / Rochester and Strood / RFM GAIN
Naushabah Khan / Gillingham and Rainham / RFM GAIN
Kevin McKenna / Sittingbourne and Sheppey / RFM GAIN
Jim Dickson / Dartford / RFM GAIN
Lauren Sullivan / Gravesham / RFM GAIN
David Burton-Sampson / Southend West and Leigh / CON GAIN
Jen Craft / Thurrock / RFM GAIN
Daniel Francis / Bexleyheath and Crayford / RFM GAIN
Margaret Mullane / Dagenham and Rainham / RFM GAIN
Chris Vince / Harlow / RFM GAIN
Wes Streeting / Ilford North / MIN GAIN
Peter Prinsley / Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket / CON GAIN
Jenny Riddell-Carpenter / Suffolk Coastal / CON GAIN
Jess Asato / Lowestoft / RFM GAIN
Ben Goldsborough / South Norfolk / CON GAIN
Terry Jermy / South West Norfolk / RFM GAIN
Rushanara Ali / Bethnal Green and Stepney / MIN GAIN
Rachel Blake / Cities of London and Westminster / CON GAIN
Joe Powell / Kensington and Bayswater / CON GAIN
Ben Coleman / Chelsea and Fulham / CON GAIN
Callum Anderson / Buckingham and Bletchley / CON GAIN
Danny Beales / Uxbridge and South Ruislip / CON GAIN
Laura Kyrke-Smith / Aylesbury / CON GAIN
Chris Bloore / Redditch / CON GAIN
Cat Eccles / Stourbridge / RFM GAIN
Alex Ballinger / Halesowen / RFM GAIN
Laurence Turner / Birmingham Northfield / RFM GAIN
Alex Mayer / Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard / CON GAIN
David Pinto-Duschinsky / Hendon / CON GAIN
Sarah Sackman / Finchley and Golders Green / CON GAIN
Dan Tomlinson / Chipping Barnet / CON GAIN
Andrew Pakes / Peterborough / CON GAIN
Sam Carling / North West Cambridgeshire / CON GAIN
Chris Hinchliff / North East Hertfordshire / CON GAIN
Shaun Davies / Telford / RFM GAIN
Sonia Kumar / Dudley / RFM GAIN
Sureena Brackenridge / Wolverhampton North East / RFM GAIN
Antonia Bance / Tipton and Wednesbury / RFM GAIN
Jess Phillips / Birmingham Yardley / WPB GAIN
Jodie Gosling / Nuneaton / RFM GAIN
Gen Kitchen / Wellingborough and Rushden / RFM GAIN
Rachel Taylor / North Warwickshire and Bedworth / RFM GAIN
Liam Byrne / Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North / RFM GAIN
Valerie Vaz / Walsall and Bloxwich / RFM GAIN
Josh Newbury / Cannock Chase / RFM GAIN
Dave Robertson / Lichfield / CON GAIN
Sarah Edwards / Tamworth / RFM GAIN
Jacob Collier / Burton and Uttoxeter / RFM GAIN
Paulette Hamilton / Birmingham Erdington / RFM GAIN
Amanda Hack / North West Leicestershire / CON GAIN
Allison Gardner / Stoke-on-Trent South / RFM GAIN
Adam Jogee / Newcastle-under-Lyme / RFM GAIN
Samantha Niblett / South Derbyshire / RFM GAIN
Baggy Shanker / Derby South / RFM GAIN
Adam Thompson / Erewash / RFM GAIN
Natalie Fleet / Bolsover / RFM GAIN
Jonathan Davies / Mid Derbyshire / CON GAIN
Gareth Snell / Stoke-on-Trent Central / RFM GAIN
David Williams / Stoke-on-Trent North / RFM GAIN
John Whitby / Derbyshire Dales / CON GAIN
Linsey Farnsworth / Amber Valley / RFM GAIN
Louise Jones / North East Derbyshire / CON GAIN
Melanie Onn / Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes / RFM GAIN
Nicholas Dakin / Scunthorpe / RFM GAIN
Michelle Welsh / Sherwood Forest / RFM GAIN
Steve Yemm / Mansfield / RFM GAIN
Jo White / Bassetlaw / RFM GAIN
Jake Richards / Rother Valley / CON GAIN
Sarah Champion / Rotherham / RFM GAIN
John Healey / Rawmarsh and Conisbrough / RFM GAIN
Lee Pitcher / Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme / RFM GAIN
Stephanie Peacock / Barnsley South / RFM GAIN
Jon Trickett / Normanton and Hemsworth / RFM GAIN
Dan Jarvis / Barnsley North / RFM GAIN
Jade Botterill / Ossett and Denby Dale / RFM GAIN
Yvette Cooper / Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley / RFM GAIN
Karl Turner / Kingston upon Hull East / RFM GAIN
Kim Leadbeater / Spen Valley / RFM GAIN
Judith Cummins / Bradford South / RFM GAIN
Kate Dearden / Halifax / RFM GAIN
Josh Simons / Makerfield / RFM GAIN
Jo Platt / Leigh and Atherton / RFM GAIN
Yasmin Qureshi / Bolton South and Walkden / RFM GAIN
Angela Rayner / Ashton-under-Lyne / RFM GAIN
Naz Shah / Bradford West / MIN GAIN
Alison Hume / Scarborough and Whitby / RFM GAIN
Luke Myer / Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland / CON GAIN
Kirith Entwistle / Bolton North East / RFM GAIN
Chris Webb / Blackpool South / RFM GAIN
Lorraine Beavers / Blackpool North and Fleetwood / RFM GAIN
Andy MacNae / Rossendale and Darwen / RFM GAIN
Sarah Smith / Hyndburn / RFM GAIN
Elsie Blundell / Heywood and Middleton North / RFM GAIN
Jim McMahon / Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton / RFM GAIN
Debbie Abrahams / Oldham East and Saddleworth / RFM GAIN
Paul Waugh / Rochdale / WPB GAIN
Oliver Ryan / Burnley / RFM GAIN
Luke Akehurst / North Durham / RFM GAIN
Sam Rushworth / Bishop Auckland / RFM GAIN
Lola McEvoy / Darlington / CON GAIN
Jonathan Hinder / Pendle and Clitheroe / CON GAIN
Maya Ellis / Ribble Valley / CON GAIN
Chris McDonald / Stockton North / RFM GAIN
Jonathan Brash / Hartlepool / RFM GAIN
Grahame Morris / Easington / RFM GAIN
Lewis Atkinson / Sunderland Central / RFM GAIN
Bridget Phillipson / Houghton and Sunderland South / RFM GAIN
Sharon Hodgson / Washington and Gateshead South / RFM GAIN
Emma Lewell-Buck / South Shields / RFM GAIN
Ian Lavery / Blyth and Ashington / RFM GAIN
Julie Minns / Carlisle / RFM GAIN
SCOTLAND
Elaine Stewart / Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock / SNP GAIN
Lillian Jones / Kilmarnock and Loudoun / SNP GAIN
Alan Gemmell / Central Ayrshire / SNP GAIN
Gregor Poynton / Livingston / SNP GAIN
Joani Reid / East Kilbride and Strathaven / SNP GAIN
Pamela Nash / Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke / SNP GAIN
Blair McDougall / East Renfrewshire / SNP GAIN
Kirsty McNeill / Midlothian / SNP GAIN
Scott Arthur / Edinburgh South West / SNP GAIN
Chris Murray / Edinburgh East and Musselburgh / SNP GAIN
Tracy Gilbert / Edinburgh North and Leith / SNP GAIN
Johanna Baxter / Paisley and Renfrewshire South / SNP GAIN
Irene Campbell / North Ayrshire and Arran / SNP GAIN
Gordon McKee / Glasgow South / SNP GAIN
Alison Taylor / Paisley and Renfrewshire North / SNP GAIN
Martin McCluskey / Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West / SNP GAIN
Frank McNally / Coatbridge and Bellshill / SNP GAIN
Zubir Ahmed / Glasgow South West / SNP GAIN
Patricia Ferguson / Glasgow West / SNP GAIN
Graeme Downie / Dunfermline and Dollar / SNP GAIN
John Grady / Glasgow East / SNP GAIN
Martin Rhodes / Glasgow North / SNP GAIN
Douglas McAllister / West Dunbartonshire / SNP GAIN
Tracy Gilbert / Edinburgh North and Leith / SNP GAIN
Melanie Ward / Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy / SNP GAIN
Euan Stainbank / Falkirk / SNP GAIN
Maureen Burke / Glasgow North East / SNP GAIN
Richard Baker / Glenrothes and Mid Fife / SNP GAIN
Brian Leishman / Alloa and Grangemouth / SNP GAIN
Katrina Murray / Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch / SNP GAIN
Chris Kane / Stirling and Strathallan / SNP GAIN
WALES
Nia Griffith / Llanelli / RFM GAIN
Henry Tufnell / Mid and South Pembrokeshire / CON GAIN
Steve Witherden / Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr / RFM GAIN
Gill German / Clwyd North / CON GAIN
