Prime Minister Keir Starmer would lose 39 per cent of his Cabinet if an election was held tomorrow, a sophisticated poll mapping model has revealed.
The Nowcast Model, which aggregates UK wide polling and weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, shows the Labour leader would lose nine of his 23 elected Cabinet members (three members in House of Lords not included).
Seven of these losses would come at the hands of Reform UK as the disruptor party’s support surges across the country.
Labour’s front bench losses to Reform UK include Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner whose 6,791-vote majority in Ashton-under-Lyme is set to be overhauled.
Cabinet seat projections
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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, who won a6,630-vote majority in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley, is also projected to be usurped by Reform, as isSecretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband(Doncaster North – 9,126 majority).
Other big casualties include Secretary of State for Defence John Healey (Rawmarsh and Conisbrough – 6,908 majority), Secretary of State for Education Bridget Phillipson (Houghton and Sunderland South – 7,169 majority) and Secretary of State for Business and Trade Jonathan Reynolds (Stalybridge and Hyde – 8,539 majority).
The biggest Labour loss in terms of swing would be Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport Lisa Nandy. With a massive majority of 9,549 votes in Wigan, Nandy’s usurping by Reform would represent a 13 per cent swing.
Wigan projection
ElectionMapsUK
Two other Labour cabinet ministers were projected to lose their seats by the model, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice Shabana Mahmood.
Streeting’s Ilford North patch and Mahmood’s Birmingham Ladywood are both projected to go to independent candidates who almost triumphed in July 2024 on pro-Gaza campaigns.
High profile losses to Reform are not exclusive to Labour, however. From the Conservative Shadow Cabinet, projected losses include:
- Victoria Atkins - Shadow Environment Secretary (Louth and Horncastle)
- Richard Holden - Shadow Paymaster General (Basildon and Billericay)
- Alex Burgart - Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (Brentwood and Ongar)
- Helen Whately - Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (Faversham and Mid Kent)
- Alan Mak - Shadow Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology (Havant)
- Rebecca Harris - Opposition Chief Whip (Castle Point)
These six ministers represent 27 per cent of the Conservatives’ shadow cabinet, a serious blow but not as extensive as the one to Labour.
Shadow Cabinet seat projections
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The shocking losses come as part of a wider forecast that shows Britain’s serious mistrust of Labour since they came to power.
After a series of deeply unpopular measures, Starmer’s party is projected to lose 198 seats (48 per cent of its MPs), including being all but wiped out in Scotland.
Labour won 37 of 57 seats north of the border in July 2024, inflicting heavy losses on the scandal-stricken SNP.
But in what would be a complete reversal the party is now set to lose 34 of those seats - 92 per cent of its Scottish representation - all to a rampant SNP.
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Projected electoral map of Scotland
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Electoral map of Scotland
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Nigel Farage’s party is set to gain 142 seats, bringing their total tally to 147 seats. That would mean leapfrogging the Conservatives into second and Nigel Farage becoming the official Leader of the Opposition.
With the Conservatives set to gain just 13 seats (bringing their total to 134 seats), a right-wing coalition with Reform would only muster 281 seats, not enough for a majority.
If this poll mapping played out, a more likely scenario is Labour forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats who would retain their 72 seats and the SNP (45 seats).
A Lab/Lib/SNP coalition could muster 330 seats, meaning a razor thin majority of five seats.
The next General Election is due in 2029. In May, a total of 1,641 councillors will be elected in May to 23 authorities including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough.
Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party compared to just one for Labour, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).
