Sir John Curtice has predicted that the Labour government will “be in trouble” within 18 months of them likely winning the election, as the polling guru says that Sir Keir Starmer “hasn’t won the hearts and minds of the country”.
Curtice, 70, said that while Labour’s lead of around 20 points is strong, the party could rule for just one term as the issues rattling the Tories will just as easily pass over to Starmer’s reign.
He said that while Starmer has managed to convince people that he would be a viable option for Prime Minister, there is a lack of “enthusiasm” from the public towards him.
The 70-year-old said: “Keir Starmer hasn’t won the hearts and minds of the country. He has convinced people [Labour] are reasonably moderate and that they can conceive of him as prime minister – that he won’t upset the applecart. But there’s no enthusiasm and that’s potentially a problem.”
Sir John Curtice has predicted that a Labour government will 'be in trouble' within 18 months, adding that Sir Keir Starmer 'hasn’t won the hearts and minds of the country'
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Speaking to The Daily Telegraph, the political scientist said that the likely Labour government will face financial woes when they step into power.
“You can see the Tories are in trouble now, but you can also see how after 18 months of a Labour government, assuming the Tories don’t engage in fratricidal warfare, the Labour Party could find itself in a pretty difficult position as well.”
He also said Starmer could potentially only rule for one term if the Tories manage to “avoid imploding”.
Earlier this week, Sunak took a double battering by losing by-elections in both Wellingborough and Kingswood, with Wellingborough seeing the largest swing from Tory to Labour at any by-election since World War II.
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John Curtice said Starmer could potentially only rule for one term
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The defeats mean the Conservative Party has now lost more by-elections in a single parliament than any administration since the 1960s.
Wellingborough, which was previously held with a Conservative majority of 18,540, was won by Labour with a majority of 6,436 - this represents a swing of 28.5 percentage points.
Kingswood was previously held with a Conservative majority of 11,220, but was won by Labour with a majority of 2,501 - a swing to Labour of 16.4 per cent.
Sir Keir Starmer said the results of the by-elections show the public “want change”.
“These are fantastic results in Kingswood and Wellingborough that show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it,” he said.
“They think that the Tories have failed. They can see that most things are broken. They look at the Labour Party and see a changed party and last night people who hadn't voted Labour before went out and voted Labour. So I'm very pleased with both of those results. But there is more work to do. There's a long way to go,” he told reporters.
Curtice also highlighted Reform UK as being a massive problem to the Tories, who are challenging Sunak on his immigration policies post-Brexit.
Labour saw a double win at the by-elections earlier this month
PA“The problem they’ve got is that we’re already looking at serious fracturing of the Leave coalition that got the Conservatives into power in 2019. Virtually everybody who votes for Reform is a Brexiteer, so there’s a risk of making the fracturing of that crucial Leave coalition even worse,” he explained.
Whilst he admitted that Labour was still the larger threat for the Conservatives, as a vote for Labour could end up in them gaining more seats, a vote for Reform UK takes away key support from the Tories.
Reform UK saw its best by-election results after targeting disgruntled voters on the right, securing more than 10 per cent of the vote in both seats, for the first time in any by-election.
Reform deputy leader Ben Habib won 13 per cent of the vote in Wellingborough, while Rupert Lowe won 10 per cent in Kingswood.
The party's leader, Richard Tice, said the result in Kingswood shows it is now a “significant force in British politics”.
