Nigel Farage today launched his campaign in Clacton as he returns to politics as the leader of Reform UK.
Farage was mobbed by supporters as a huge crowd watched the launch of his campaign to become an MP - he hailed Clacton-on Sea as Britain's most patriotic town and warned Tories will pay 'big price' for 'betraying voters.'
The 60-year-old claimed that the General Election needed to be “gingered up,” declaring it “the dullest, most boring election campaign we have ever seen in our lives.”
Referring to his past political success, Farage warned: “I’ve done it before. I’ll do it again. I’ll surprise everybody.”
Nigel Farage announced that he will be running for MP
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But how likely is it that Nigel Farage will become the MP for Clacton for Reform UK after the General Election?
The seaside town in Essex made headlines in October 2014 after Conservative MP Douglas Carswell triggered a by-election when he defected from the Tories and won as a Ukip candidate.
The UK Independence Party gained its first elected MP and made its entry into the House of Commons.
Then in 2014, Mark Reckless won the Rochester and Strood by-election, giving Ukip a second Westminster seat.
Nigel Farage launched his election campaign in Clacton on Tuesday
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In the 2014 book, Rob Ford and Matt Goodwin referred to Ukip’s supporters as not EU-obsessed Tories, but the ‘left behind’ voters.
They describe those voters as “older, lower-skilled, and who have less educational advantages,” or, in other words, those who feel like no party speaks for them.
Similar themes run through today's Clacton, known as the town in Britain where one in five have never had a job.
In recent study by Clacton Place programme, over half of people over 16s in the town are economically inactive - more than twice the UK average.
Ford and Goodwin defined Clacton as one of the most Ukip-friendly seats in the country in 2014, and therefore, arguably similar statistics show the town would be most friendly to Reform.
A January 2024 poll found that if Farage stood for Reform they would win the seat in Clacton
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According to polling conducted earlier this year by Britain Predicts, Survation, Farage could win Clacton.
In a poll conducted in January 2024, Survation found that if Farage did not stand, Reform would only win 18 per cent of the vote behind Labour (30 per cent) and the Conservatives would win the majority with 38 per cent.
Nigel Farage enjoys a pint of beer as he launches his General Election campaign in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
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However, with Farage as their leader, the poll showed reform would win the seat in Clacton with 37 per cent, followed by the Conservatives with 27 per cent and Labour with 23 per cent.
In the telephone poll of the constituency, the researchers found half of all Conservative voters would vote for Farage if he were to stand as well as 51 per cent of leave voters.
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A 2024 poll found that half of Conservative voters in Clacton would vote for Farage if he ran for MP
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Farage has name recognition, and the prospect of him standing in a Conservative constituency will raise the media profile of Reform leading up to the July election.
His return could even help Reform UK overtake the Tories in the polls who are currently polling at 20 per cent.
Polling by Ipsos in February showed that Farage made Reform’s favourability rise from 19 per cent to 25 per cent, overtaking the Conservatives in the popularity contest.
Farage does well in the polls, but this is his eighth attempt to enter parliament. History is batting against the former Brexit leader, but once again he has stirred up the election playing field.
