MAPPED: Polls project heavy Conservative losses in May elections – but who’s winning them?

Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party compared to just one for Labour, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).

Of these seven, four are run by Conservative minority administrations, two by Liberal Democrats, and one by Independents.

The elections- the first major batch since the July General Election- are being billed as a major test for the two establishment parties, Labour and the Conservatives.

They were last contested in 2021 when the Conservative Party recorded dominant results thanks to a ‘vaccine bounce’ as voters rewarded Boris Johnson’s rapid vaccine rollout.

However, three leaders later, Kemi Badenoch’s party are now projected to win 548 councillors in May, an estimated net loss of 390 councillors.

This would appear to confirm Tory fortunes have not been reversed since the General Election drubbing in July 2024.

Polling by Electoral Calculus using MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification), a relatively recent innovation in polling science which has been used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, shows Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats capitalising on Tory losses.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is set to win 474 councillors, scooping 25 per cent of the vote, while Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are set to win 270 councillors and 16 per cent of the vote.

Due to boundary changes it is difficult to compare the projected results with previous elections.

However, leading pollsters ElectionMapsUK has estimated this would be a net gain of 470 councillors for Reform and 50 for the Lib Dems.

Labour’s projected share of 252 councillors is also a poor result for the incumbent party, translating to a net loss of 40 seats.

Elsewhere, the Greens are projected to win 27 seats (down 10) while 77 would go to ‘others’, mostly independents (down 80).

It comes after the same research by Electoral Calculus revealed Reform UK would have won the most councillors and the most votes had Angela Rayner not cancelled elections in nine authorities.

Of the 32 authorities originally up for grabs, Reform UK would have won 12, the Tories 11 and the Lib Dems eight.

But Labour cancelled elections in nine authorities- East Sussex, West Sussex, Essex, Thurrock, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Suffolk and Surrey.

Of these nine, Reform was set to win four, Suffolk, Thurrock, Essex and Norfolk. It means the party is now projected to win eight authorities instead of 12.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are ‘losing’ just one area they were projected to win to cancellations, Hampshire.

It means the Tories are now projected to come out top in terms of number of authorities won with 10 (down one), despite the loss of nearly 400 councillors.

By separating the polling for areas where elections are and aren’t going ahead, we again see how Reform UK is being hit harder by the cancellations than any other party.

Nigel Farage’s party was projected to win 223 councillors in the nine authorities where elections have been delayed, compared to the Tories’ 140 and the Lib Dems’ 131.

Even with the delays ‘robbing’ Reform of four councils and many councillors, if these results were to play out it would be a major coup for the right-wing party and the first real proof of electoral success since only gaining five MPs in July 2024.

Since July, Reform has won just five per cent of the 212 council by elections, despite national polls handing them a lead UK wide.

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Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "Our local election poll shows that the Conservatives are likely to make significant losses compared with their strong performance back in 2021.

“Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government.

“But the large-scale delays to elections, affecting over five and a half million voters, will soften the scale of Conservative losses and reduce Reform's gains."

Aside from councils, there are also four combined authority mayoral elections, two of which are new.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough and the West of England were both won by Labour in 2021, whilst Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire will be heading to the polls to elect a mayor for the first time.

Doncaster and North Tyneside will also be electing single authority mayors, both of which are currently held by Labour.

In addition, elections are taking place in the Isles of Scilly.