Matt Goodwin delivers analysis as SHOCK POLL puts Reform on 20% as SECOND biggest party

Labour 36%, Reform 20%, Conservatives 16%, Lib Dems 10%, Greens 9%, SNP 4%.

Goodwin said: “Consistent with other polling, we have Labour slightly down only days before the election, on 35%, while the Conservatives are up 1-point to 16% and Reform are down again to 20% (from their high with us of 24% two weeks ago).

"Nonetheless, unlike other pollsters we still have Reform ahead of the Conservative Party in terms of the national share of the vote.

"We have, obviously, not changed any methodology throughout the entire general election campaign”.

Only a minority of voters think Britain will be in safe hands with a Labour government.

Goodwin said: “Overall, only 32% of voters think Britain will be in safe hands with a Labour government while 43% think it will not be in safe hands and the remainder 25% do not know.

"This is yet more evidence for a broader point I have made throughout this campaign –there simply is no mass public enthusiasm for the opposition Labour Party.

"While Labour is certainly ahead in the polls only a minority of voters are genuinely excited, enthusiastic, and supportive of the party, its leader, and policies.

"This suggests to me that the likely incoming Labour government, faced with a constrained economy and widespread public disillusionment, will likely be unpopular very quickly”.

A plurality of 2019 Conservative voters want a more conservative Conservative Party.

Goodwin said: “When asked whether the next leader of the Conservative Party should push the party in a more liberal or conservative direction, or should maintain the current direction of travel, some 35% of 2019 Conservative Party voters prefer a more conservative direction, 13% prefer a more liberal direction, and 17% prefer the current direction of travel, while the rest say they do not know.

"This suggests that a plurality of the party’s former voters would like to see the party, after the election, move in a more conservative rather than liberal direction, which should influence the thinking of the Conservative Parliamentary Party if they are serious about getting back in touch with their former voters, particularly those who handed them an 80-seat majority in 2019”.

There is little tribal loyalty in British politics –half the country say they are only ‘lending their party of choice their vote’.

Professor Matt Goodwin said: “When we asked voters which statement comes closest to their view –are they lending a party their vote or voting out of loyalty—some 50% said they were lending their chosen party their vote while only 20% said they were voting loyally. Interestingly, nearly 60% of Labour voters say they are “lending” Labour their vote, which underlines the challenge Keir Starmer has.

"There is little loyalty to the big parties today, and a much more instrumental electorate, suggesting again that while Labour might be dominant in the polls this support may well turn out to be fleeting”.

Only one in four voters think the outcome of the election will make a ‘big difference’ to their lives.

Goodwin said: “Overall, 24% of voters think the party that wins the election will make a ‘big difference’ to their life, 28% think it will make a ‘small difference’ and 20% think it will make ‘no difference at all’, with the rest saying they do not know.

"This is a reminder that apathy and disillusionment remain widespread in the country, as does the feeling, held by many, that politics actually makes little meaningful difference to people’s lives”.